The Religious Forces Shaping Iraq After The US Withdrawal
The United States completed its military withdrawal from Iraq at the end of last month — ending a 12-year mission that began when American forces returned in 2014 to help defeat ISIS.
The last U.S. troops left on Sept. 30, with Washington and Baghdad declaring the transition to an Iraqi-led security relationship. ISIS, officials said, no longer holds territory, although its remnants remain active as an insurgent threat.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said U.S. troops and equipment had completed an “orderly departure” from the air base in Irbil, in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
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“This milestone reflects the success of a 12-year campaign that defeated ISIS as an organized military threat in Iraq and across the region,” he said. “It also marks a transition from a wartime coalition mission to an Iraqi-led security effort supported by a more normal bilateral security relationship.”
The American departure marks a significant turning point for a country that has spent more than two decades at the center of U.S. military intervention and Middle Eastern power struggles.
Iraq is considerably more stable than it was during the ISIS war, but the United States leaves behind a political system in which Shia parties dominate, Iran has extensive influence, powerful Shia militias retain their weapons, Sunnis are still rebuilding their political position and the Kurds maintain substantial autonomy in the north.
Here’s what you need to know about Iraq today and the religious forces that remain at play.
What is Iraq like today?
Iraq is far more stable and secure than during the 2014-17 war against ISIS. The terror group no longer controls territory or major cities. Nonetheless, Iraq still struggles with corruption, weak public services, unemployment, oil dependence, water shortages, and the lingering effects of war.
How important is Shia Islam in Iraq?
Shia Muslims make up the majority of Iraq's population, making Shia religious and political institutions central to the country’s power structure. But Iraq is not simply a Shia theocracy: It holds elections, secular forces, Sunni and Kurdish political parties, and competing Shia movements.
Are all Iraqi Shia political forces aligned with Iran?
No. Iraq’s Shia political world is deeply divided, with some factions closely aligned with Iran, while others emphasize Iraqi nationalism and independence from Tehran. The influential religious establishment in Najaf, particularly Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, represents a Shia tradition distinct from Iran's model of clerical rule.
Who is Ali al-Sistani?
Sistani is Iraq’s most influential senior Shia cleric and the leading figure of the Najaf religious establishment. He supports the Iraqi state and Shia religious authority but does not advocate the Iranian system in which senior clerics directly rule the government.
What are the Popular Mobilization Forces?
The Popular Mobilization Forces — also known as Hashd al-Shaabi — are a large collection of armed groups that emerged during the fight against ISIS, many of them Shia. They subsequently became part of Iraq's formal security structure while retaining considerable political, military, and economic influence, with some factions closely connected to Iran.
How much influence does Iran have over Iraq?
Iran has a lot of influence through political parties, militias, religious networks, trade, energy, and personal relationships, particularly among parts of Iraq's Shia political establishment. But Iraqis — including many Shia — often resist being treated as Iranian clients, and Iraqi nationalism is a powerful counterforce.
What role does Muqtada al-Sadr play?
Muqtada al-Sadr leads a powerful Shia movement that combines religious politics with Iraqi nationalism and has opposed both American and excessive Iranian influence. His movement demonstrates why Iraqi Shia politics cannot simply be understood as an extension of Iranian power.
What happened to Iraq’s Sunni Muslims?
Sunnis lost the political dominance they had enjoyed under Saddam Hussein and subsequently experienced insurgency, sectarian warfare, displacement and the rise of ISIS. Most Iraqi Sunnis today participate in the political system and should not be confused with ISIS, which also inflicted enormous suffering on Sunni communities.
What was ISIS’s religious ideology?
ISIS represented an extreme Salafi-jihadist interpretation of Sunni Islam that rejected the Iraqi state, democracy, Shia Islam, and many existing Muslim authorities. Its attempt to establish a caliphate involved mass killings, enslavement, forced conversion, and persecution of Shia, Yazidis, Christians and Sunni Muslims who opposed it.
What role do the Kurds play in northern Iraq?
Most Iraqi Kurds are Sunni Muslims, but Kurdish nationalism and the desire for political autonomy are generally more important than Sunni religious identity in Kurdish politics. The Kurdistan Regional Government maintains substantial autonomy from Baghdad, while disputes over territory, oil, revenues, and military forces remain unresolved.
Clemente Lisi serves as executive editor at Religion Unplugged.