Temporary Gains In The US And A False Revival in Britain
(ANALYSIS) Is Christianity gaining or declining? For sure, it’s gaining on a worldwide basis thanks to expansion in “Global South” nations, but what about the long-running declines reported in the United States and the United Kingdom?
The days leading up to Easter produced the following: New findings all but demolished a poll in Britain last year that claimed a notable upswing in church attendance. Pope Leo XIV hailed a rise in European converts that was then documented in the United States. And a top analyst reported that U.S. secularism is declining, yet is destined to rise again.
Let’s start with Britain. A year ago, the Bible Society reported that two surveys it commissioned from the major polling firm YouGov showed active, church-attending Christians were 8% of the population in 2018 but zoomed to 12% in 2024. Even more surprising, and promising, those ages 18 to 24 showed a 16% increase. The Bible Society promoted this as “dramatic” proof of a “quiet revival.”
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There were immediate questions since churches’ own numbers show no such gains. And turns out the revival was too good to be true. An embarrassing YouGov statement on March 26 said techniques used to eliminate fraudulent participants in such online surveys “were not administered in the optimal way” so the results are untrustworthy. YouGov said the Bible Society itself was innocent of misrepresentation and simply interpreted the numbers it was provided.
Humanists Brits cheered this “vindication” of its doubts and contended, “The U.K. is not a Christian country, and our politics must reflect that,” instead of “living a lie.” The Bible Society said it will re-crunch the data hoping for accurate findings, and cited Ipsos and Pew Research surveys showing increased Christian devotion.
Two days after the YouGov bombshell, Pope Leo, while visiting Monaco, said there is a “growing number of men and women of all ages who desire to know the Lord and ask to be baptized.”
Indeed, in tiny Monaco 70 adult catechumens joined the church by baptism or confirmation in this year’s annual Easter Eve ritual, more than double last year’s group and triple the number in 2024. France reported more than 20,000 adult converts, 20% above last year’s record total, with similar increases in Austria and Belgium.
Regarding U.S. Catholicism, two days after the pope’s remark a page one New York Times report said a spot check of two dozen dioceses found each one had a significant increase in adults joining the church this Easter Eve. Some dioceses said conversions were the highest since years ago, before the Covid dip. These are reliable, hard numbers and suggest a nationwide trend. Furthermore, a March 31 report on 80% of U.S. dioceses by the prayer app Hallow showed a remarkable average 38% upswing in new members this Easter compared with 2025. These are reliable, hard numbers and suggest a nationwide trend.
Equally significant are the statistics covering all U.S. religions in a March 28 column by Washington University expert Ryan Burge. The latest data from the Cooperative Election Study with its huge population sample show that as of last year 31.8% of U.S. adults identified as non-religious, compared with 34.1% in 2024, 35.6% in 2023 and 36.2% in 2022. That persistent slump brings numbers to totals seen back in 2017 and 2018.
Burge said that trend is “statistically significant” with a negligible polling margin of error. Though YouGov performs CES surveys, Burge sees no sampling errors comparable with what he calls its British “disaster.” Moreover, the same pattern appears with another standard source, the University of Chicago’s General Social Survey (GSS), where American adults without religious ties slipped similarly, from 28% in 2021 to 25.2% in 2024.
Politicians and journalists will be interested that the share of Democrats who say they’re non-religious has now fallen to 41.1%, a level seen back in 2014. Among Republicans, the non-religious are 17.1%, returning to the 2015 level. Burge, a political scientist, is unsure whether or what partisan factors might explain these declines.
Before hallelujahs burst forth, Burge delves into “staggering” negative findings on age categories. Social scientists generally use these definitions: Silent Generation (those born 1925-1945), Baby Boomers (1946-1964), Generation X (1965-1980), Millennials (1981-1996), and Gen Z (1997-2012).
Here are CES percentages on non-religious identity in those five groups, moving from oldest to youngest: 14.2%, 20.9%, 28.1%, 41.2% and 43.1%. While the non-religious population has recently slipped, Burge warns, that’s “not by a huge percentage and not for very long.”
Despite hopes of religious leaders, he sees “absolutely zero evidence” that those younger generations “are meaningfully moving back toward faith.” Thus the secularism of those born after 1980 will inevitably wipe out temporary religious gains.
Keep in mind that there are several ways to gauge trends in religiosity. CES and other surveying groups measure “belonging,” poll respondents’ self-reported religious identity or affiliation. As another Burge column points out, documented memberships are lower than peoples’ self-identifications. Some surveys, particularly by Pew Research or the decennial Religion Census, seek to nail down respondents’ specific church membership.
Many denominations issue their own annual membership counts. The National Council of Churches and a predecessor compiled comparable membership reports from most major denominations in yearbooks beginning in 1916, but that essential service disappeared after the 2012 edition.
Another approach is “behaving,” as in Gallup polls going back to 1937 on respondents’ reported attendance at worship services. In 2000, 46% reported attendance weekly or almost weekly, compared with 31% as of 2025. Significantly, Protestants as a whole report markedly higher weekly worship attendance than Catholics, reversing a historical pattern. Some analysts think these numbers declined because during most of U.S. history people exaggerated attendance to look good whereas these days it doesn’t matter.
The third criterion is “believing,” whether the doctrinal and moral views of poll respondents uphold stands of their faith. These surveys usually show the lowest levels of religious devotion.
Then there’s the intriguing index of peoples’ perception of religion’s influence in American life. On that, Gallup reported last year that 34% think influence is increasing, versus only 20% in 2024. Though a 59% majority of 59% see declining influence, that compared with 75% a year earlier.
Richard N. Ostling was a longtime religion writer with The Associated Press and with Time magazine, where he produced 23 cover stories, as well as a Time senior correspondent providing field reportage for dozens of major articles. He is a recipient of the Religion News Association's Lifetime Achievement Award. He has interviewed such personalities as Billy Graham, the Dalai Lama, Mother Teresa and Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI); ranking rabbis and Muslim leaders; and authorities on other faiths; as well as numerous ordinary believers. He writes a bi-weekly column for Religion Unplugged.