3 Things You’re Getting Wrong About Religion Data
(ANALYSIS) Today’s post is going to be a bit different than the usual stuff you get on my newsletter.
Instead of just focusing on a single question and making a bunch of graphs that try to figure out that causal puzzle, I am going to share a few things that I’ve learned after doing this kind of work for the last 10 years.
I see people make assumptions about data and statistical analysis that just make me scratch my head. So, this is a rant of sorts. A short list of things that come up again and again when I post any type of graph on social media.
You better believe that I’m going to be dropping this link into my replies on dozens of occasions in the future.
1. The average rate of public opinion change is much slower than people anticipate
I can’t tell you how many times I will post a graph that has data collected in 2024 and shows no major changes in public opinion and someone will reply, “If you had data from 2026, I’m sure it would show a lot of movement.”
That kind of response is just so divorced from how public opinion actually works that I feel like I need to take some time to really lay out how wrongheaded it is.
For those aspiring data analysts out there who are just learning how to code and make graphs, let me give you a piece of advice — if you see a survey question that has been asked with regularity over a long time move more than three to four points in a short window of time (less than two years), then you need to check your code again. It is highly unusual for stuff to shift that much that quickly.
Take, for instance, the General Social Survey’s question about allowing a woman to have access to an abortion if she wants one for any reason.
You can read the rest of this post on Substack.
Ryan Burge is an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, a pastor in the American Baptist Church and the co-founder and frequent contributor to Religion in Public, a forum for scholars of religion and politics to make their work accessible to a more general audience. His research focuses on the intersection of religiosity and political behavior, especially in the U.S. Follow him on X at @ryanburge.