How Will Democrats’ Israel Shift Affect Jewish Voters?
(ANALYSIS) Is it conceivable that the 2026 and 2028 election cycles will erode the Democratic Party’s lock on Jewish voters, one of the iron laws of American politics? Or instead, will Jewish Democrats increasingly turn against support for Israel?
In 2024, presidential nominee Kamala Harris scored a typical 65% of the Jewish vote, running on a platform saying the U.S. “strongly supports Israel in the fight against Hamas.”
But then and now, many liberal Democrats, Jews included, have turned hostile toward Israel and its harsh military response to the 2023 Hamas atrocities.
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Outspoken critics include extremist Democratic campaigner Hasan Piker, who believes “Hamas is a thousand times better than the fascist settler colonial apartheid state of Israel,” and New York City’s first Muslim mayor, Zohran Mamdani, who opposes Israel’s existence as a Jewish state (even as 57 nations are officially Muslim).
Such fireworks are accompanied by worrisome increases in both anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim incidents and rhetoric. Meanwhile, a hard-left or socialist faction is gaining Democratic Party influence.
A New York Times analysis last week said these insurgents agree that “opposition to American support for Israel is a moral litmus test, fueled by a belief that the Gaza war amounted to genocide.”
This new dynamic was dramatized in recent weeks as Democrats picked four U.S. Senate candidates who are sharp-edged critics of Israel. An emergency party convention in Maine nominated Troy Jackson, followed by three primaries.
Abdul El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim Senator, eked out a 1% victory in Michigan despite $32 million the American Israel Public Affairs Committee lavished on his pro-Israel opponent. (The Times tabulates that AIPAC affiliates have spent $142 million on 53 races since 2022). Peggy Flanagan coasted to a 59% victory in Minnesota. And last week Florida’s Angie Nixon won by a surprising 56%.
Like Mamdani, Nixon belongs to Democratic Socialists of America, which seeks a “free Palestine,” an end to “all military and economic aid to Israel,” and prosecution of the Americans and Israelis “responsible for the genocide in Gaza.”
Democrats have also nominated for the University of Michigan Regents Amir Makled, who has sympathized with Hezbollah and favored economic divestment from Israel. U.S. House primary results are mixed.
These nominations suggest a highly significant Democratic reconfiguration, whether or not the candidates win. (On that, Senate ratings by both the Cook Political Report and Sabato Crystal Ball currently have Maine and Michigan as toss-ups, Minnesota a “likely” Democratic win, and the Florida seat solidly Republican).
That’s not all. In April, 40 Democratic Senators, including several Jews, voted against certain weapons sales to Israel, compared with 19 in 2024 and 24 in 2025 favoring similar resolutions. Republicans killed all three measures.
In July, the U.S. House voted on a proposed cutoff of $3.3 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Israel. Democrats were deeply split, 103 in favor, 98 opposed, and 10 “present,” while only one of the staunchly unified Republicans backed the bill.
The same partisan gap is shown in Gallup polls since 2000 that periodically ask Americans whether their Mideast sympathies are more with Israelis or Palestinians. As recently as 2016, a 53% majority of Democrats favored Israelis, but currently Palestinians have zoomed to 65% sympathy vs. 17% for Israelis. Republicans’ sympathy for the Palestinian side has never exceeded 14% (currently 13%) while Israeli sympathy has reached as high as 87% (currently 70%).
American Jews are conflicted as never before, which plays into the Democratic evolution. A Washington Post poll of Jews last October said 39% thought Israel was committing genocide in Gaza, and 61% that Israel has committed war crimes against Palestinians.
Only 31% of Jewish Democrats approved of Israel’s actions in Gaza, compared with 85% of Jewish Republicans. And yet three-fourths over-all also said the existence of Israel is vital for the long-term future of the Jewish people.
An Associated Press poll last month demonstrated a religious dimension. Among the U.S. Jews polled, three out of 10 categorized themselves as secular, whether atheist, agnostic, or religiously unaffiliated. They stood out, with 45% feeling no emotional attachment to Israel, while 40% of religious Jews were “extremely” or “very” attached.
Though 48% of religious Jews said supporting Israel is an important part of their Jewish identity, only 12% of secular Jews agreed. Regarding Gaza, 21% of secularists thought Israel’s operations were justified, compared with 52% of the religious.
Some political history. Polling by the Cooperative Election Study, with huge samples that can provide accurate data on a small minority such as Jews, reported that 65% vote for Harris was preceded by the following for Democrats: Joe Biden (69%), Hillary Clinton (69%), Barack Obama (65% and 70%).
Jews’ remarkably consistent partisan fidelity spans 25 presidential elections dating back to 1928, according to the anthology “Jews in American Politics.” Jewish majorities for Democrats have dipped below 64% only twice, with Jimmy Carter’s weak 45% against Ronald Reagan and John Anderson in 1980, and Adlai Stevenson’s 60% against Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.
U.S. Muslims are also in flux. CES reported surprising 33% support for Donald Trump over Harris in 2024, but only 9% for him in 2020 and 22% in 2016. Republicans Mitt Romney won 13% in 2012 and John McCain 6% in 2008. CES says Muslims identify as Democrats by 50%, with 27% Republican and 22% independent.
However, the Pew Research Center reported a Muslim breakdown of 53% Democratic or leaning, 42% Republican or leaning, and only 6% identified with neither party.
Richard N. Ostling was a longtime religion writer with The Associated Press and with Time magazine, where he produced 23 cover stories, as well as a Time senior correspondent providing field reportage for dozens of major articles. He is a recipient of the Religion News Association's Lifetime Achievement Award. He has interviewed such personalities as Billy Graham, the Dalai Lama, Mother Teresa and Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI); ranking rabbis and Muslim leaders; and authorities on other faiths; as well as numerous ordinary believers. He writes a bi-weekly column for Religion Unplugged.