Evangelicals Twice As Likely to Back Trump Over Harris
Entering into the final months leading up to the 2024 presidential election, former President Trump holds a sizable lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among evangelicals.
Likely voters with evangelical beliefs are twice as likely to plan to cast their ballot for Trump than Harris (61% vs. 31%), according to a study from Lifeway Research. Few say they are still undecided (5%) or supporting another candidate (3%).
While Trump is winning among voters who strongly agree with four theological beliefs central to evangelicalism, Harris leads among likely voters without such beliefs (47% vs. 38%).
READ: Guide To The 2024 US Presidential Candidates
Trump holds a smaller lead among churchgoing Christian likely voters. Among those who self-identify as Christian, are registered and plan to vote and attend church at least once a month, half support Trump (49%), and 41% back Harris, with 6% undecided and 4% planning to vote for another candidate.
“Evangelical beliefs are theological in nature, and surveys have shown that on some doctrinal issues, evangelicals are in lockstep and on others they are split,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “Biblical views can influence what a person wants for society and what they think is the best way to get there, but choosing a presidential candidate is not something all people with evangelical beliefs agree on. More than a third have a different perspective than the majority.”
Evangelicals and churchgoers may be a key demographic in the upcoming election as a high percentage are registered voters. Nine in 10 evangelicals by belief (89%) are registered as are even more churchgoing Christians (96%).
Presidential polling
Much like U.S. Protestant pastors, evangelical voters were initially skeptical of Trump, but his support has solidified in the past two elections. More than a month before the 2016 election, Trump led Hillary Clinton (45% vs. 31%) among Americans with evangelical beliefs, but 15% were undecided and 9% planned to vote third party, according to a Lifeway Research study.
By 2020, Trump had a commanding 61%-29% lead over Joe Biden among evangelical belief adherents before the election, with just 8% undecided and less than 2% voting third party. Now, Trump leads Harris by a similar 30-point margin.
His support is likely linked to the party identification of evangelicals. Almost 3 in 5 Americans with evangelical beliefs (57%) say they are either a registered Republican or consider themselves to be a member of the party. A quarter (25%) are Democrats, and 16% are Independent. Party identification is more evenly split among Christian churchgoers. Almost half (45%) say they’re Republican, 33% say Democrat and 18% are Independent.
Like previous elections, Trump’s current support among evangelicals is more solid among white and older voters. White likely voters with evangelical beliefs are the most likely to back Trump (77%). Evangelicals aged 50-64 (66%) and 65 and older (68%) are more likely to choose Trump than those who are 18-34 (48%).
The former president struggles most among African American evangelicals where just 14% plan to cast their ballot for him, and 76% back Harris.
Age and ethnicity also play a key role among churchgoing Christians. Young adults (18-34) in that group are more likely to support Harris than those 50-64 years old (51% vs. 36%). Three in 5 white churchgoers (60%) plan to vote for Trump. Among African Americans who regularly attend church, 71% say they’ll cast their ballot for Harris.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats and Republicans plan to vote for their party’s nominee. Around 9 in 10 evangelicals and Christian churchgoers say they support the candidate of their political party.
“A person’s political party is more predictive of their voting intentions than their religious views,” said McConnell. “Political candidates typically invoke Christian references when convenient. Similarly, some Christians apply biblical principles to political decisions when it suits them.”
Deciding factors
Around 4 in 5 registered voters (79%) say an ability to improve the economy is an important characteristic of the candidates for deciding how to cast their vote. Most also say the candidate’s position on immigration (62%) and an ability to maintain national security (60%) are important. Almost half look for personal character (48%), position on abortion (46%) and position on foreign policy (44%).
Around a third see ability to address racial injustice (34%), ability to address climate change (34%), ability to protect religious freedom (34%), position on size and role of government (33%) and likely Supreme Court nominees (32%).
Evangelical voters and those without such beliefs have many of the same priorities in the election, but some differences exist. Evangelicals are more likely than others to say position on immigration (72% vs. 60%), ability to protect religious freedom (55% vs. 28%) and position on foreign policy (53% vs. 42%) are important, while being less likely to look for a candidate’s personal character (41% vs. 51%) and ability to address climate change (26% vs. 36%).
Similar divides open between Christians who attend church services at least monthly and other Americans. Regular churchgoers are more likely to look for a candidate’s ability to protect religious freedom (44% vs. 28%) and less likely to see personal character (43% vs. 51%), ability to address climate change (29% vs. 37%) and ability to address racial injustice (30% vs. 37%) as an important consideration for their vote.
Forced to choose the most important issue, voters as a whole are most likely to say the economy (34%), followed by personal character (15%) and position on immigration (13%). No other issue garnered more than 9%.
Voters with evangelical beliefs are more likely than others to say a candidate’s ability to improve the economy (39% vs. 33%) or position on immigration (19% vs. 12%) is the most important characteristic for them in deciding the candidate to vote for and less likely to choose personal character (10% vs. 16%) or position on abortion (6% vs. 10%).
“Evangelicals are not single-issue voters. On average, people with evangelical beliefs picked more than five of the 11 characteristics listed as important in their decision on a presidential candidate,” said McConnell. “When evangelicals don’t find a candidate that fits their views exactly, the largest group gives preference to the candidate they believe has the most ability to improve the economy.”
Registered voters backing Harris are more likely to say a candidate’s personal character (67%), position on abortion (62%), ability to address racial injustice (55%) and ability to address climate change (54%) is important.
Those voting for Trump are more likely to look for a candidate’s ability to improve the economy (87%), position on immigration (78%), ability to maintain national security (72%), position on foreign policy (55%), position on size and role of government (43%) and ability to protect religious freedom (41%).
For more information, view the complete report.
Aaron Earls is the senior writer at Lifeway Research.