Crossroads Podcast: What Easter ‘Revival’ Stories Get Right — And Wrong

Two or maybe three weeks before Western Easter, at least one editor in a mainstream newsroom will shudder and say something like this: “Does anyone have any ideas for a Page 1 religion story of some kind? We need something for Easter.”

What precisely is an “Easter” story? For some editors, it may be one of those perennial stories in which some historian, or an academic think tank, will claim that new form of evidence disproves this or that beloved Christian doctrine, maybe even the Resurrection of Jesus. The goal is something edgy for Easter that will inspire lots of letters to the editors.

It’s also possible that editors, in newsrooms that include a skilled religion-beat professional, will approve a story that can run just before Easter because it includes a news hook or newsworthy trend that is actually linked to the rites of Holy Week or even Easter. Bravo!

That’s what happened with the New York Times story discussed during this week’s “Crossroads” podcast — the latest of many recent reports noting that lots of people are converting to Roman Catholicism or another ancient form of faith. Yes, that includes all of the conservative young men (and even more young families with children) who are joining Eastern Orthodoxy.

The big question, again and again: Is there a “revival” taking place in Catholic life in America? Here is the double-decker headline on that Times report:

Roman Catholic Churches See a Surge of New Converts

Bishops are trying to understand what’s behind the wave. People joining the church described their reasons as highly personal.

That headline is much better than the norm. Note that the Times avoided yet another reference to a coast-to-coast “revival.” The word “surge” is an accurate way to describe the complex fact that some churches — including ancient, liturgical forms of faith — are welcoming lots of newcomers and converts. However, as I have stressed in previous Rational Sheep posts and podcasts, many congregations and even dioceses in these very same churches are in decline.

That’s complex. Here is how I stated that equation for “On Religion” readers (Part I and Part II) about what is happening in Eastern Orthodox:

The bottom line: The catechumenate class numbers are staggering. While some Orthodox parishes are shrinking, or have hit plateaus, many clergy are struggling to handle congregations that have doubled or tripled in size during the post-pandemic years. Parishes that rarely had catechumens now have 10 or more. Convert-friendly congregations that once had a dozen newcomers now have 50-150.

Thus, many parishes — especially Sunbelt parishes — have catechumenate classes larger than average mainline Protestant congregations.

The new Times report describes the surges in PARTS of American Catholicism, while avoiding the equally important fact that many Catholic institutions — at the local, regional and national levels — are stalled or rapidly shrinking. 

Thus, I keep insisting that, while there is no national “revival” taking place, there are “revivals” — plural — in many places while, elsewhere, there are trends that could be called “funerals.” 

The takeaway from this podcast: Both of these trends are important and will be newsworthy for years to come. Let’s start with this crucial piece of background reporting from the Times story:

Bishops are buzzing about the surge, and confounded by what is behind it.

“Of course we think the Holy Spirit is,” Cardinal Robert McElroy of Washington said. “But we are kind of stymied.”

His own archdiocese is set to have 1,755 people enter the church this Easter, up from last year’s 1,566, which had already been the highest number in at least 15 years, according to the archdiocese’s records. Others have noticed similar trends.

“‘What is your number? What is your number?’” Cardinal McElroy recounted a huddle of bishops asking one another between sessions at a recent conference.

Each diocese has its own process for tracking conversion data, making a reliable, real-time accounting difficult. The Times gathered data from two dozen dioceses, including some of the country’s largest, like Los Angeles and Phoenix, as well as rural and smaller ones like Gallup, N.M., and Allentown, Pa.

Each reported a significant jump.

It’s significant that, unlike many “convert” boom reports, the Times piece — from the religion desk, not the political desk — didn’t try to link this surge with the rise of President Donald Trump or any other earthquake in American politics.

It’s interesting that the Times team went out of its way to note growth patterns in progressive Catholic areas like Washington, D.C., and even Newark, New Jersey. Are the growth numbers as high there as in more conservative parts of the church? Maybe that’s a question for another day.

So, what is going on? Here are two other passages to consider:

Respondents pointed to a range of possible reasons, including the desire for community, social and political instability, outreach to young people and technological change. …

[The] loneliest group of people entering the church to be those ages 18 to 35, a cohort several dioceses noted had experienced particular growth.

Many dioceses said that there had been a drop during the coronavirus pandemic, when many in-person church activities stopped. But in many cases, this year’s numbers go beyond making up for that dip. In Philadelphia, the new total is double what it was in 2017. In Newark, 1,701 people will join the church this Easter, compared with 1,000 in 2010.

The online world also led to this section of the story:

For Jesse Araujo, 19, in Pahrump, Nev., a rural part of the Archdiocese of Las Vegas, the biggest influence in drawing him to the faith was listening to Catholic podcast stars he found on YouTube, like Father Mike Schmitz. He went to Mass only a few times before joining the O.C.I.A. process.

“A lot of people spend their time scrolling through TikTok — my version of that is apologetics,” he said, referring to speakers who make arguments for faith.

He felt an obligation after learning about the sacraments.

“I follow Jesus — Jesus left a church, I should follow that church,” he said. Now both of his parents are taking O.C.I.A. classes, too, he said, which made him feel a sense of pride.

However, as the omnipresent chart-master Ryan Burge has noted, it is important that Catholicism is seeing far more people pass through the faith’s exit doors that through entering in rites of conversion. Catholicism is seeing eight people leave — to become “nones” or Protestants — for every person who swims the Tiber. 

What about sliding Mass attendance numbers? The ongoing issue of fewer young adults willing to become priests or nuns? Burge has noted that roughly 13% of all U.S. adults are former Catholics, while only 2% have converted to Catholicism from other faiths.

In conclusion, I urged “Crossroads” listeners to consider how hard it would be for pollsters and journalists to answer the question that matters the most: Why are some parishes and institutions growing, while others are clearly in decline?

During decades of writing news stories linked to church growth, I kept hearing several explanations for church growth — often by critics of growing churches as well as their supporters. Here are five concepts, broadly stated.

1. Churches grow in growing ZIP codes and regions and decline in areas that are in decline. There is no question that it’s easier to build growing churches in the Sun Belt these days than in the Rust Belt. However, there are many, many exceptions. In cities like Dallas, or Atlanta, there will be growing and shrinking churches in the same denominations in the same cities and even in similar parts of those cities.

2. Conservative doctrine and culture causes growth. Many discussions start with the classic book “Why Conservative Churches are Growing,” by the late Dean M. Kelley of the National Council of Churches. Once again, this thesis fails to apply in all cases. There are “conservative” churches that are shrinking, while other “conservative” denominations have hit a plateau or are in decline. Then others boom.

3. Growing churches have talented, charismatic leaders. However, “talent” in takes many forms. There is more to this question than pulpit skills. And ponder this: If cultural “progressives” are so gifted in entertainment, academia and politics, why are there so few large, growing “progressive” churches with talented, charismatic pastors?

4. Seekers today are looking for tradition and beauty, not just “megachurches” with rock bands, big budgets and diverse programs. Yes, there is evidence that many Americans are seeking community in traditional forms of faith, with ancient, rich, artistic forms of worship. But, again, why are so many congregations in ancient church traditions dying, while others are rapidly growing?

5. It’s the Holy Spirit — period. Yes, that has to be true. But try to document that using forms of information that work in the New York Times. And in Catholicism, the Holy Spirit seems to be more powerful, at this point, when it comes to inspiring converts than in effective calls to ordained ministry. Try to imagine a research methodology allowing a journalist to dig into this factor in growth and decline.

At this point, I think it’s clear that congregations with armies of converts are communities that welcome outsiders and have found ways to be “convert friendly,” within the traditions of their ancient churches or denominations. However, how would reporters document this factor with verifiable statistics and facts?

At some point, journalists need to find solid statistics and trends other than mere church membership. What kinds of numbers do most denominations chart and take seriously? 

I believe that journalists should start asking about marriage rites, infant baptisms, adult baptisms, clergy ordinations, enrollment totals in religious schools and, yes, adult conversions.

This leads me back to an Anglican anecdote that I shared several times with GetReligion.org readers:

Long ago, the Rt. Rev. C. FitzSimons Allison was a bishop in good standing in the Episcopal Church. …

Needless to say, he has witnessed more than his share of Anglican debates about the future of the Anglican Communion, a communion in which national churches are in rapid decline in rich, powerful lands like the United States, Canada and England, but exploding with growth in the Global South.

During one global meeting, Allison watched a symbolic collision between these two worlds. Bishops from North America and their allies were talking about moving forward, making doctrinal changes in order to embrace the cultural revolutions in their lands. They were sure that Anglicans needed to evolve, or die.

Finally, a frustrated African bishop asked three questions: “Where are your children? Where are your converts? Where are your priests?”

Yes, some forms of vitality and life are more important than others, when considering why some flocks experience “revivals” and others hold more “funerals.”

Enjoy the podcast and, please, share it with others.