Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission: Last Chance for Peace or Another Lost Cause?
A scene from Ethiopia’s Simiens Mountains. (Photo via Flickr)
(ANALYSIS) Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture. Years of civil war and ethnic strife have left deep wounds and a fragile peace.
The northern civil war (2020–2022) alone caused an estimated 600,000 deaths and displaced millions. Atrocities were committed by all sides, including the government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Eritrean troops. Reports from Ethiopia, the U.N., and human rights organizations document these violations.
Even with the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022, peace remains uncertain. The Amhara region remains under a state of emergency, Oromia faces ongoing insurgencies, and sporadic clashes continue elsewhere. Ethiopia’s stressed economy, persistent Human Development Index challenges, inflation, food insecurity and displacement heighten the urgency of credible dialogue.
Amid this fragility, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission is the nation’s key forum for dialogue and reconciliation, with success essential for Ethiopia’s survival and the greater good of all citizens.
Ethiopia’s divided political landscape
Ethiopia’s political trajectory has long been shaped by revolutions, authoritarian successions and ethnically rooted contestations. The 1974 Marxist revolution replaced the monarchy with a military regime that collapsed under civil war and famine. The 1991 ascendance of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) introduced an ethno-linguistic federalism codified in the 1995 constitution. At its core lies Article 39, which grants ethnic groups an unconditional right to self-determination and even secession.
While some hailed this arrangement as recognition of Ethiopia’s diversity, others warned that it institutionalized ethnic division. The federal system has fueled political cynicism, secessionist movements, competing territorial claims and violent conflicts. Questions of symbols, language, and history remain unresolved.
With deep wounds, fragile peace, and heightened mistrust, the stakes for dialogue are high. Ethnic and territorial divisions, compounded by northern war devastation, make any attempt at national dialogue fragile.
Against this fractured backdrop, the ENDC faces the almost impossible: facilitating dialogue among stakeholders who compete for power and view one another with deep mistrust and cynicism.
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission
The ENDC was formally established on Jan. 13, 2022, by a proclamation of the House of Peoples’ Representatives. It consists of eleven highly competent commissioners, chaired by Professor Mesfin Araya, a respected elder and psychiatrist. The Commission’s mandate is clear: to organize and facilitate a nationwide dialogue addressing Ethiopia’s fundamental divisions and set a path toward peace and unity.
From the outset, critics questioned the ENDC’s independence, noting its accountability to a parliament dominated by the ruling party and reliance on state funding, an inherent problem from its inception. These critiques are not unfounded.
Challenges facing the ENDC:
1. Accountability Structure: The ENDC is formally accountable to the House of Representatives, dominated by ruling party members, undermining confidence in its independence.
2. Blurred Lines Between Party and State: In Ethiopia’s political dynamics, the ruling party and state are often indistinguishable, complicating ENDC’s neutrality.
3. Conflict of Interest: The government is both a stakeholder and executor of ENDC recommendations, creating a tension between authority preservation and impartial implementation.
4. Perceived Bias and Distrust: Mutual suspicion among government, opposition, and regional elites reduces constructive engagement. Fragmented and opportunistic actors, alongside government self-preservation, make trust-building extremely difficult.
Unless addressed, these contradictions risk the ENDC being dismissed as another mechanism to manage dissent rather than a platform for genuine reconciliation and nation-healing.
Lessons from global precedents
The dilemmas facing the ENDC are not unique. History shows that structural flaws, mistrust, and elite capture have repeatedly derailed national dialogues elsewhere.
In South Sudan, peacebuilding was undermined by exclusion, historical grievances, and ethnic divisions, with both ruling and opposition forces perpetuating cycles of violence. In Libera, post-war reconciliation produced only a “negative peace,” exploited by opposition and government actors for political gain, delaying disarmament, eroding trust, and leveraging unrest.
Other examples include Yemen, Chad and Sri Lanka.
These cases underscore a sobering truth: without inclusive representation, institutional independence and neutral implementation, even the most promising dialogues fail. Government dominance and opposition opportunism, compounded by economic and humanitarian crises, could derail the ENDC.
Role of faith communities
Ethiopia is a deeply religious country, where Christian, Muslim, and other faith traditions have shaped much of its history and daily life. In this delicate environment, faith communities hold a unique position. They command grassroots trust and moral authority, though they are not immune to political capture, a reality that needs to be acknowledged.
At this critical moment, faith leaders are called to rise above division and stand on common ground for the greater peace and good of the country. As Pope John Paul II observed, “True peace does not arise from mutual ignorance, but from engaging in dialogue and fostering encounters.”
These words resonate across multiple traditions and affirm the role of all faiths in fostering reconciliation.
Faith communities provide moral authority, help heal intergenerational trauma through reconciliation practices, and foster interfaith and interethnic cooperation. The Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia brings these traditions under one umbrella, amplifying collaboration and advancing a shared vision of peace, justice, and human dignity. Their engagement is vital to safeguarding the dialogue’s integrity and inclusiveness, and promoting sustainable, lasting peace and national healing.
Here are recommendations to strengthen ENDC credibility:
To strengthen the ENDC as a credible platform, the following measures are suggested:
Broaden Accountability: Reporting to a multi-stakeholder council, including civil society, academia, faith communities, and regional representatives, could enhance confidence.
Secure Independent Resources: Independent funding mechanisms may reduce political manipulation and support operational autonomy.
Neutral Implementation Mechanism: An independent body, separate from the executive, could monitor and support ENDC recommendations, with trusted third parties like the African Union, United Nations, or interfaith councils acting as guarantors.
Peace and Security as Preconditions: Credible ceasefires or humanitarian truces could precede high-stakes dialogue, providing safe spaces for free speech without intimidation.
Transparency and Public Engagement: Public access to ENDC proceedings, along with grassroots consultations and media forums, can promote ownership of the process.
International and Faith-Based Oversight: Respected neutral observers and unbiased academic institutions working alongside Ethiopian civic and academic societies could ensure impartiality and enhance credibility.
These measures can ensure a fair process for all, including the government, while enabling constructive dialogue for the nation’s good.
Ethiopia has no viable alternative to the ENDC. Despite fragility, its potential endures if all actors rise above narrow interests. Government, opposition, civil society, and faith communities are urged to rise above narrow interests. Forward-looking reforms are critical: short-term measures ensure safe dialogue and independent oversight; long-term measures institutionalize inclusive mechanisms and monitoring by local and international actors.
Strengthened by faith, civic, international, and academic oversight, the ENDC can become Ethiopia’s vessel for reconciliation.
Failing to act risks recurring violence, while inclusive dialogue offers unity and hope. Scripture reminds us: “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God” (Matthew 5:9). Ethiopia desperately needs peacemakers today, and the ENDC represents its last, best chance to move beyond division toward a shared future.
Girma Bekele is a consultant in Christian mission studies and a visiting professor of missional leadership in the postmodern world at Tyndale University College & Seminary, Toronto, as well as Covenant Theological Seminary, St. Louis.