After Francis, What Now For The Catholic Church?
(ANALYSIS) With Pope Francis’ funeral in the rearview mirror, the focus at the Vatican shifts to the forthcoming papal conclave and the process of electing the next pontiff.
The Catholic Church is bigger than one single pope, but talk of Francis’ legacy lingers as the church finds itself at a crossroads. It is also something the next pope will have to contend with.
The Francis papacy was marked by a greater focus on politically progressive issues —migrants, climate change, and LGBTQ rights—that fueled much doctrinal confusion in the process. At the same time, Francis upheld traditional beliefs and was in lockstep with his predecessors Saint Pope John Paul II and Benedict XVI, holding a firm line when it came to issues such as abortion, the need for evangelization, and helping the poor.
From the start, the Holy Father made a strong impression by living simply, electing to reside, for example, in a guesthouse instead of the Apostolic Palace most popes choose. He emphasized his focus on the poor and charitable works, while championing more participation on the part of laypeople. These were all good things for a church seeking to find its place in the 21st century.
Nonetheless, I agree with a recent opinion by Philadelphia’s Archbishop Emeritus Charles Chaput (who should have been made a cardinal by Francis) that “an interregnum between papacies is a time for candor.” That candor includes highlighting what Francis did badly and what the next pope can do to make the church a much stronger force for good around the world, while also maintaining its centuries-old traditions and values.
Pope Francis was wrongly painted a communist by many on the political right in the United States and his native Argentina, but that doesn’t mean his often autocratic style didn’t alienate conservative Catholics. Yes, Francis was a pope of firsts — the first from Latin America, the first Jesuit, and the first to take the name Francis — but his disruptive style had its limitations. Francis’ era was one marked by too many news alerts proclaiming that some church teaching had been changed, only to discover very little had. It resulted in glowing mainstream press coverage and frustration for so many of us.
An example of this occurred in December 2023 when the pope approved allowing Catholic clergy to bless same-sex couples—issuing a document detailing the change in the Vatican’s policy—as long as it doesn’t resemble a marriage ceremony. In the days and weeks that followed, amid much pushback, the Vatican was forced to clarify the decision. What it all means for the daily life of Catholics is less understood even all this time later.
So what now for the next leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics?
A lot will depend on whether the College of Cardinals elects a pope who is progressive, in the same vein as Francis, or a return to the traditional, like John Paul II and Benedict XVI. There’s no way to know how this secret process will play out. Francis named 108 of the 135 cardinals who will decide the next pope—a supermajority—but whether that has any influence on the outcome remains to be seen.
The Overton window, when it comes to church doctrine, may have shifted some, but that doesn’t mean the next pontiff can’t show that he is a leader for all Catholics. Banning things such as the Latin Mass at a time when more younger people in the West are hungry for tradition and liturgy in this ever more secular and digital world hurt Francis’ overall effectiveness. It’s a fine line, but the next pope can be both progressive and still hold on to tradition.
One way to do so is to avoid Francis’ doctrinal ambiguity (he was a Jesuit, after all) on a variety of issues that didn’t serve his 12-year papacy well. Jesuits, whose religious order was founded by Saint Ignatius of Loyola in 1540, have developed a more liberal or progressive viewpoint on a variety of topics over the centuries. Francis came to embody this very spirit.
While the pope’s proclamations featured a series of well-meaning gestures (coupled with what appeared to be policies akin to a liberal Protestant church), the Catholic Church’s role is primarily to ignore the headlines of today. Instead, the church needs to focus on its primary mission — promoting faith and guiding believers towards spiritual salvation.
In greater depth, here are the five areas the next pope will need to focus on:
Ideological divisions
As mentioned, the church has not been immune to the culture wars, experiencing deep internal divisions in an ever-polarizing world. The upcoming conclave to elect a new pope will be pivotal in determining which vision prevails, with potential candidates such as Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines—dubbed “the Asian Francis”—viewed as someone who could continue in a progressive direction.
Francis never fully addressed some of the progressive factions—most notably in Germany over the issue of same-sex blessings—who thumbed their noses at doctrine. Even when the Vatican did address the issue in early 2023, German bishops said they would defy Rome. The issue became moot after the Vatican said such unions could be blessed, albeit with a series of caveats.
At the same time, Pope Francis was not a theological giant. It was tough to be in the shadows of such notables as John Paul II and Benedict. But he could have surrounded himself with someone with doctrinal heft. Instead, he named Victor Manuel Fernández to head the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith. The cardinal fueled ambiguity with the announcement that priests could bless same-sex unions, something that included a carveout after it was poorly received by African bishops. The next pope should replace Fernández with someone like Benedict.
Clergy sexual abuse
Long a plague on the church, this needs to be addressed by the new pope from the start. Critics have argued that Francis’ response to the crisis was insufficient, particularly in holding bishops accountable and ensuring greater transparency. Survivor groups have called for more action and systemic change to protect vulnerable children, seminarians, and nuns—who all have been the target of abusive clergymen—in order to restore greater trust in the church.
Oddly, Francis was a defender of Marko Rupnik, a Jesuit priest from Slovenia. The Jesuits expelled Rupnik from their order in 2023 after more than two dozen women came forward to say he had sexually and psychologically abused them. Nonetheless, Rupnik, also an artist whose mosaics decorate many churches around the world, remains a priest after the order was overruled by the Vatican as it sought its own probe. The next pope needs to make it a point to move quickly and make a decision regarding Rupnik’s future.
Demographic shifts and global growth
While Christianity is declining in the West (despite some recent data revealing a growing interest by men and Generation Z), it is rapidly growing across the global South, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia. This rapid growth has occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, which today is home to about 171 million Catholics — up from an estimated 1 million in 1910, according to Pew Research Center.
This demographic shift presents challenges for the church’s governance, as the Vatican’s leadership remains predominantly European. Francis was Argentine (the son of Italian immigrants to the South American nation), but he essentially functioned as a European despite his outreach to the peripheries. He was in agreement with many European bishops who also favored a progressive stance. He made it a point to elevate such bishops to cardinals, while ignoring men like Archbishop Salvatore Cordileone of San Francisco, a conservative who sparred with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
A new pope from the global South could alter the church’s dynamics. Wherever the pope hails from, a new global strategy will be needed beyond the usual papal trips.
Ensuring long-term financial sustainability
It’s easy to forget that the pope is also the head of a small state. As leader of the Holy See, the next pope will face the financial pressures that come with running the Roman curia, the Vatican’s governing body, and a worldwide church. A decline in donations and rising costs in recent years haven’t helped. The Vatican’s financial situation has been in peril for some time.
In 2023, the Holy See’s annual operating deficit reportedly grew to more than $90 million. The Vatican doesn’t provide figures regarding its finances to the public. The Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook estimated, for example, that its revenues and expenditures in 2013 had reached $315 million and $348 million, respectively. The Francis era included several high-profile financial scandals. A new pontiff will need to explore new ways to raise money, while making sure the bloated Vatican bureaucracy and corruption can be tamed.
Interfaith dialogue and Christian persecution
Francis had taken steps in interfaith dialogue, and the next pope will need to do the same without watering down doctrine. It won’t be an easy task, but a necessary one. So many Christians around the world are being persecuted as minorities. The pope will need to be an advocate for them, while helping to bridge divisions with other faiths.
Part of this interfaith dialogue involves the pope’s role as diplomat. It seemed as if the church’s role in international relations had somewhat weakened in recent years. Although the pope is considered a man of great influence, Francis’ papacy has also coincided with the rise of both secularism and populism. That placed the Vatican in unfamiliar positions on some issues, like finding itself aligned with left-wing parties in Italy.
There are plenty of conflicts around the world for the next pontiff to get involved in. The ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and the terrorist group Hamas are just two major ones that warrant attention.
Being pope is both complex and demanding. The next man to lead the Catholic Church will need to find the right balance between the spiritual, diplomatic, and administrative. It’s now up to the College of Cardinals to elect a new pope. It’s a decision guided by the Holy Spirit, not simply ambition or politics. It’s also a decision that will determine the future direction of the church and global Christianity. The time seems ripe to embark on a new era.
This piece originally appeared at The Dispatch and is republished here with permission.
Clemente Lisi is the executive editor of Religion Unplugged.