Hope in the face of despair: Ethiopian PM Abiy’s rise to the Nobel Peace Prize

Abiy Ahmed. Photo by Aron Simeneh.

(NEWS ANALYSIS) While describing Ethiopia, many say it is a land of contrast. Indeed, Ethiopia is a land of contradiction, even paradox.  

In spite of rich natural resources, many Ethiopians live in poverty. Situated in one of the most favorable ecological zones, Ethiopia hardly feeds itself. It’s a country with ancient civilization and rich tradition, and yet, it struggles to establish democratic institutions. Ethiopia has been hit by a series of drought and famine, while it contributes about 85% of the water flowing to Sudan and Egypt, and the long list continues. 

The 100th Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the prime minister of Ethiopia Oct. 11 is also another example of Ethiopian irony.  

Abiy Ahmed is an inspirational leader— he ended nearly two decades of a stalemate from a war with Eritrea that had killed 70,000 people — but whether or not he is a decisive government leader is yet to been seen. 

The election of Dr. Abiy as Ethiopia’s prime minister has been considered a turning point in the modern history of the country. A son of a Muslim father and an Orthodox Christian mother has enabled him to connect with a broad array of people. His evangelical faith has helped him to inspire hope, preach love and promote unity like never before. For many, he is the first Ethiopian since Haile Selassie, an Ethiopian Orthodox Christian, to unify the country. (Selassie led Ethiopia onto the world stage by joining the United Nations, and is worshipped as the Bible’s messiah in the Rastafari movement.)

In the past 18 months, Abiy has accomplished so much for Ethiopia and the region. His first signature achievement was to end the “no peace-no war” stalemate with Eritrea. His courageous leadership in promoting peace and stability in the horn of Africa has made him a regional peacemaker. Abiy’s indispensable role in helping the Sudanese to resolve their differences and establish a transitional government has won him regional and global appreciation. But ironically, these remarkable accomplishments in the region are not matched by his leadership at home. 

Let me put things in perspective. The first few months of Abiy’s administration were characterized by some brave decisions. He freed political prisoners, invited all political parties and rebel groups to join hands in the reform process, promised to revisit repressive laws, sought to reorganize repressive institutions, unified one of the most polarized Ethiopian diasporas, etc. It seemed almost miraculous. 

The above drastic changes as well as his astonishing shift from being a member of a political cadre to a devoted and sharply visionary leader has caught many by surprise. His messages of hope, as well as initial actions and promises, have encouraged many to call Abiy Ethiopia’s Moses — the Biblical figure who led the ancient Israelites out of slavery so that they could later claim their promised land, the good life.

They are right. But Abiy’s leadership must sustain.

In a political culture known for its “my way or the highway” character, Abiy’s forgiveness, conciliatory language and personable approach have made him more a spiritual leader than a government head. Like Moses, he is charged with taking Ethiopia and Ethiopians out of the century old cycle of crises. Regardless of the enormous challenges from many radical groups in the country, the prime minister aspires to ignite hope in the face of tragedies. His administration has achieved what some thought impossible during previous administrations.  

Given this, some would say the Nobel Prize is a well-deserved recognition for stunning achievements so far. For others, the prize is a hope of what he would do in the future. It is like a “down payment” for the service and leadership that he would provide. For the latter group, the award was “aspirational.”

During its announcement, the Nobel Peace committee highlighted the enormous challenges that Ethiopia and Abiy’s administration face.  “Ethiopia is at a crossroad” is an understatement; it is at a cliff. A slight misstep would lead to disintegration. Ethnic conflict has become quite common. Today, hardly a single ethnic group is not in conflict with its neighbors. The ongoing conflict has made Ethiopia the home of millions of internally displaced people swept from their land because of ethnic strife. His political party, EPRDF, is no more unified than it was a decade ago; ethnic polarization has challenged the solidarity of the security forces. Recent killings of top civilian and military leaders have reminded the political elites that no one is safe in any political turmoil. Political fragmentation threatens the very existence of the nation. Thus, some entrepreneurs and political activists have sought to undermine Abiy’s authority.

Given the aforementioned challenges, unifying the country has remained a daunting task for his administration. Let’s hope the well-deserved Nobel Peace Prize will strengthen Abiy to rise to the challenge and provide a much-needed leadership. Let’s hope his administration will handle Ethiopia’s current and future crises with commitment, authority, responsibility and accountability.

No matter how daunting the challenges, all is not lost on Ethiopia. And a leader who can turn this around and translate this moment into opportunity is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. His strong Christian belief and unique background coupled with an exceptional ability to inspire hope in others could enable him to lead Ethiopia to the promised land, as Moses led his people in the Bible. 

He is the leader of a land of contrast. We wait to see if he can turn Ethiopia’s irony into unity, and agony into glory.

Dr. Zenebe Beyene is a professor of Journalism at the University of Mississippi. Previously he was an assistant dean and head of the Office External Relations, Partnerships and Communications at Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia.