Is The Age Of The Megachurch Dead?
(ANALYSIS) The last half-century might one day be described by church historians as the Age of the Megachurch. However, it appears that this era — if it existed at all — is coming to an end.
Megachurches are not going away, of course. But data in recent years suggest their growth and numbers are leveling out, and possibly even declining.
In 1970, the United States had less than 20 protestant megachurches, churches with more than 2,000 in weekly attendance. Today, that number is close to 2,000, a 100-fold increase. However, this number has been mostly unchanged for the past 10 years. In other words, after a period of explosive growth from 1970 to about 2010, the growth in the number of megachurches, and the number of people who attend them, seems to have stagnated.
Outreach Magazine publishes an annual list of the fastest growing churches in America, and the largest churches in America. I recently compared the most recent list to the list from 2006 — 20 years ago. My analysis was not comprehensive, but it was fascinating.
For example, the largest church on the 2006 list was Lakewood Church in Houston, Texas, pastored by Joel Osteen. In 2006 and 2026, the attendance listed was 45,000. No growth whatsoever over a 20-year period.
The No. 2 church on the 2006 list was Florida’s Without Walls International Church, led by Randy White, the former husband of Prosperity Gospel preacher and Trump advisor Paula White. Without Walls had 23,900 attendees in 2006.
Today, that church is not on the list. It sold its facility in 2011 following the divorce of Randy and Paula White, not to mention other public scandals. Today, the church still exists, but attendance figures are hard to come by. Attendance is likely in the hundreds or — at most —low thousands. Not the tens of thousands of its heyday.
The No. 3 church on the 2006 church is the Second Baptist Church of Houston, which listed attendance of 22,266 in 2006 and still has attendance of 19,564 today. That is a slight decline over the past two decades, but Second Baptist is still a substantial church and a force in the Houston area.
Rounding out the Top Five on the 2006 list are New Birth Missionary Baptist Church (22,000) and Willow Creek Church (21,500). Both churches have been wracked by scandal and are now much smaller today than then.
In short, not one of the Top Five churches of 2006 grew in the intervening decades, and three of the five had very public scandals that precipitated dramatic declines.
Anecdotes, not data
I do not want to overstate my case. As William Bennett famously said, “The plural of anecdote is not data.” I am sharing anecdotes, not data — or at least, not all the data. I will be the first to admit that.
And I can think of a couple of good counterarguments to my thesis that the Age of the Megachurch is over.
First, while these churches have declined, others have emerged, and some of them are very large indeed. For example, Life.Church of Edmond, Okla., led by Craig Groeschel, now claims 85,000 attendees.
That makes it the largest church in the nation. Church of the Highlands of Birmingham, Ala., is led by Chris Hodges. That church claims 60,000 attendees. And Christ’s Church of the Valley in Peoria, Ariz., is both the No. 3 church on this year’s list and it remains one of the fastest growing churches in the country, with 54,142 in weekly attendance.
However, it is worth noting that all three of these churches are multi-site churches. Life.Church has more than 45 physical locations. Church of the Highlands has at least 27 locations. Christ’s Church of the Valley has more than 18 physical locations. The multisite phenomenon was rare in 2006 and nonexistent in 1970. It is obvious that if these multisite churches were not aggregating numbers from dozens of sites, their numbers would be much less eye-popping.
The growth in multi-site churches, and the anemic growth in the number of megachurches also make obvious that American infatuation with megachurches seems to be in decline.
Ryan Burge, my “go to guy” when it comes to church data, notes that the median size of a church in America is about 70 people. Put plainly, the nation’s megachurches attract about five to seven million people each week. But non-megachurches attract 10 times that many — 50 to 70 million people.
In other words, the megachurch is not now, nor has it ever been, representative of the church experience in the United States. Megachurches feel dominant because they receive media attention, and they can invest in radio, television, and other mass media. But that is an illusion.
The new way is the old way
Will these trends continue? The answer to that question is, likely, “yes.”
First, lots of church leaders, even those in the church growth movement, are growing tired of the megachurch and multisite model. Here at MinistryWatch, we have written about Watermark Church, which abandoned its multisite model in 2021. Most of those sites became independent churches, and they are now thriving. Some of these independent churches have themselves planted churches.
Mark Dever, pastor of Capitol Hill Baptist Church in Washington, D.C., is someone who has never embraced either the megachurch or the multisite model. His church has intentionally stayed relatively small, less than 1,000 in weekly attendance, and it has been equally intentional about planting churches in the D.C. area. So far, CHBC has helped plant or revitalize more than a dozen churches in the surrounding area.
Secondly, it is important to note that the megachurch is at least as much a cultural phenomenon as it is a spiritual phenomenon. Megachurches are the brainchild of Baby Boomers and the post-World War II industrialization of America and the world. That is why I often refer to the “Evangelical Industrial Complex” to describe what has happened to religious life since the 1970s.
The industrial model, with its features of scale and mass production, has proven damaging to the mission of the church, and it has lost its appeal to subsequent generations, who value community and relationships. We can now see that evangelicalism’s industrial model is good at empire building, but not as good at kingdom building.
So, to return to the question that started this conversation: Is the Age of the Megachurch over? The answer to that question may be that it really never was. The sturm und drang of the megachurch movement has turned out to be just what Goethe’s famous expression suggests: overwrought, full of passion, but fleeting.
Megachurches will not disappear, but after a half-century of observation, we can say that the legacy of the megachurch is mixed, and includes scandal, spiritual deconstruction, and cynicism.
In short, becoming a megachurch is no longer the goal to which even church growth advocates aspire. Many faithful Christians are discovering the wisdom found along the Old Paths, and they can say with conviction E.F Schumacher might admire: “Small is beautiful.”
This article was originally published in MinistryWatch.
Warren Cole Smith previously served as Vice President of World News Group, publisher of WORLD Magazine, and Vice President of The Colson Center for Christian Worldview. He has more than 30 years of experience as a writer, editor, marketing professional, and entrepreneur. Before launching a career in Christian journalism 25 years ago, Smith spent more than seven years as the Marketing Director at PricewaterhouseCoopers.