‘Not Shrinking Everywhere’: What The Amish And Mennonites Can Teach Us About Church Growth
(ANALYSIS) How does Christianity grow?
This is a question that should be vital for Christians, especially since the Great Commission makes growing Christianity one of most important concerns.
But do we really know? Sure, an industry of church growth, leadership organizations and consultants have arisen to show us how to grow our church. Every day I get emails from Carey Niewhoff, Donald Miller, John Maxwell, Thom Rainer and others.
And, I should quickly add, I often find their advice helpful. (In fact, I should say that Carey Niewhoff has spoken into my life powerfully in the past few months. I am grateful for his ministry). I also get almost daily invitations from organizations holding conferences on some aspect of church or ministry growth.
But all this activity has, for me, made the question we started with — how does Christianity grow? — even more urgent. Because all the indicators are that, in the United States at least, Christianity is not growing. It is shrinking.
But it is not shrinking everywhere. Data guru Ryan Burge has noted that the Assemblies of God (AOG) denomination and the Presbyterian Church in America (PCA) are bucking national trends. These growing denominations are very different, but they share an important characteristic. They are both theologically conservative.
Indeed, if there is one almost indisputable fact you can say about denominations today, it is this: conservative denominations are growing, moderate denominations are stagnant, and liberal denominations are shrinking.
But Ryan Burge and the other sociologists and church growth experts I follow have almost nothing to say about what appears to be the fastest growing religious body in the United States: Old Order Mennonites.
Old Order Mennonites are hard to track. Their polity is congregational, and they tend to be geographically isolated and technology averse, so reporting structures are nonexistent or — at best — analog and not digital. But a few dedicated anabaptist scholars have made efforts to track them.
The “godfather” of these researchers is retired sociology professor and researcher Donald Kraybill. According to Kraybill, in 2009 about 18,000 Old Order Mennonites lived in nine states, most in rural areas such as the Finger Lakes region of New York and parts of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. By 2015 their numbers had grown dramatically, to between 60,000 and 70,000. They had also expanded into Tennessee, Maryland, Minnesota, and Illinois, plus the Canadian province of Manitoba. If historical growth rates have continued, this year the Old Order Mennonites will cross 100,000 adherents.
Things get even more interesting if you include all branches of Mennonites and Amish in the United States. That brings the total to more than 400,000. In other words, Amish and Mennonites in the United States now outnumber members of the Presbyterian Church in America, The Christian and Missionary Alliance, or the Disciples of Christ.
Furthermore, the Amish are growing at the rate of more than 3% per year, and they have maintained that growth rate (or more) for the past century. If that growth rate continues (a fair assumption), the denomination will double every 20 years or so. In a generation, the Amish will be one of the 10 largest religious bodies in the United States. In a century, it could be the largest religious body in the country.
Of course, as Yogi Berra famously said, “Predictions are dangerous. Especially predictions about the future.” A lot of current trends must continue, and they must continue for a very long time, for these predictions to come true. So let me say here that it is likely they will not come true as I have predicted here.
Still, even if we ignore the future and focus only on the recent past, the numbers are astounding. And if we evangelicals really care about church growth like we say we do, we should be asking: Why? How?
Kraybill said there are two reasons for the growth. First is the high fertility rate of the Old Order Mennonites. They have more than eight children per family. Second is the intensive discipleship of children. Nearly 90% of young people stay in the religion when they reach adulthood. These factors alone have resulted in the group’s remarkable growth.
It really is that simple.
Kraybill reported some new pressures on the group. For example, the group has grown so fast that it owns most of the land in its home region. Extended families are buying land farther from the original homesteads, a phenomenon that makes it tough for these families — most of whom still will not drive automobiles — to maintain family cohesion. Nonetheless, Kraybill estimated the fundamentals of high fertility rates and strong spiritual formation practices will keep the growth rate strong for years to come.
So, does this entire discussion amount to little more than recovering obedience to God’s command to be fruitful and multiply? In some ways, the answer to that question is a resounding yes. We have, of course, seen glimpses of this behavior in the evangelical movement in the past 50 years or so. The “Quiverfull movement” and the recent social media phenomenon of “trad wives” are manifestations of this inkling.
The Quiverfull movement seems to be in decline, and the trad wife movement has become more of a design aesthetic than a true demographic movement. Charlie Kirk’s exhortation to young people to “get married, have children, and build a legacy” does seem to be gaining traction, though it is too early to tell whether it will have a long-term impact.
So, the question remains: “How does Christianity grow?” Now, though, we can say that history gives us a clear answer. It does not grow via the machinery of the Evangelical Industrial Complex, with church growth consultants, big rallies and massive social media platforms. These things are not necessarily bad — they are just irrelevant.
The church grows when we are fruitful and multiply, and when we raise our children in the nurture and admonition of the Lord.
It really is as simple as that.
This piece was originally published at MinistryWatch.
Warren Cole Smith previously served as Vice President of WORLD News Group, publisher of WORLD Magazine, and Vice President of The Colson Center for Christian Worldview. He has more than 30 years of experience as a writer, editor, marketing professional, and entrepreneur. Before launching a career in Christian journalism 25 years ago, Smith spent more than seven years as the Marketing Director at PricewaterhouseCoopers.