Ryan Burge
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(ANALYSIS) I’ve been a party to a lot of conversations about being mainline over the last 20 years. And sometimes I get the distinct impression that evangelicals really, really don’t like mainline Protestants. But do prefer nonbelievers to mainline Christians?
(ANALYSIS) Here’s a behind-the-scenes bit of information: I don’t have any raw data at my disposal about how religious groups are intending to vote in the 2024 presidential election. However, I do have a way to back into some information about how things should shake out come Tuesday night.
(ANALYSIS) I’ve been trying to think of a way to better understand how female pastors experience their job compared to men. There just aren’t that many surveys of clergy out there, so this is not an easy task. The other day I remembered that there was a dataset out there that I hadn’t done a lot with — the National Congregations Study.
(ANALYSIS) I like studying an organization like the Freedom From Religion Foundation. It’s a self-selected collection of individuals who become members and pay dues because they feel it’s a good use of their time and resources. But how much do members of a group like FFRF represent the larger nonreligious group they come from?
(ANALYSIS) I’ve written before about the political activity of a bunch of different religious groups. But I wanted to revisit that prior work and take the level of analysis down one layer of granularity to look at specific Protestant denominations.
(ANALYSIS) I don’t know if you have heard or not, but there’s an election coming up. And it may be “the most important election in the history of the cosmos.” Or it may just be like every other presidential election we’ve had in the last 50 years. This election also gives me the opportunity to do something that I have always wanted to do, but just never had a great reason.
(ANALYSIS) ”Women are much more supportive of the LGBT population than men.” That came up in a Q&A session that I did after a talk. The person asked if women were leaving conservative churches more quickly because of their views of same-sex marriage and gender identity. OK, so let me just figure out if that’s true or not.
(ANALYSIS) Basically all the Christian traditions are at the top of this graph — Protestant, “Just Christian,” Orthodox and Catholic, in that order. In each case about three-quarters lean toward not finding it acceptable to shout down a speaker. The groups at the bottom are the three types of nones and the Jewish sample.
(ANALYSIS) The nones just aren’t a coherent “thing” like Catholics or evangelicals. They are united by what they are not. They don’t have regular worship services. I think it’s fair to say that there isn’t a dominant worldview among the nonreligious. But now, we can have an unprecedented view into the differences in organized nones versus nones in general.
(ANALYSIS) So let me visualize how the two major parties have diverged on these metrics over the last couple of decades. Let’s start with belief in God, a question that has been included in the General Social Survey with regularity since the early 1990s.
(ANALYSIS) I am going to pull out some questions that piqued my interest when I was scrolling through the codebook. The first is a set of two questions about mental health. Folks were asked, “How often do you get the social and emotional support you need?”
(ANALYSIS) I am going to completely sidestep the whole discussion of the conflict in the Middle East in this post and just focus on a narrow question: How many Muslim votes are there in the state of Michigan, and could they actually cost the Democrats the state?
(ANALYSIS) Every once in a while I will get an email from someone who doesn’t really fit the mold. Let me be clear that the amount of communication I get from Bernie Sanders-supporting White evangelicals is not huge. The more common sentiment is a White evangelical who sees themselves as politically moderate or really pushed out by the modern MAGA Republican Party.
Is there a more recent dataset of European religion that I haven’t analyzed yet. And the answer is yes! There is one. It just released data from a survey wave that was administered in 2023 and 2024. It’s not all of Europe, just 13 countries. It doesn’t include France, but it does have a nice representation from Western Europe, Scandinavia and a few Eastern European countries thrown in there.
(ANALYSIS) The debate over a potentially less religious future for the Republican Party took center stage during discussions surrounding the Republican National Convention in July. On the first day of the festivities, Amber Rose was given a speaking slot. Is there a rising number of nonreligious Republicans that are going to take the party in a less socially conservative direction?
(ANALYSIS) All credit to the tremendous Landon Schnabel for a great paper that was published at the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion. The title tells the story: “A Search for Liberalizing Religion: Political Asymmetry in the American Religious Landscape.”
(ANALYSIS) Here’s a lesson that I’ve learned over the last couple of years: If the first book you write gets any traction at all, you will be remembered for that work for years to come. Not that it’s a bad thing. I am still giving presentations to different groups that use graphs that I first put together over five years ago. People want to read “The Nones” and talk about it. That’s truly a blessing. I think I speak for most academics when I say that I’m just glad that anyone wants to read what we spend years writing.
(ANALYSIS) The first question battery was focused on the family circumstances of those who were currently nonreligious. I wanted to break this down by age to see if younger nones were more likely to be raised in a nonreligious household compared to older nones.
(ANALYSIS) I had a great chance to learn from some new data released by the team who runs the Cooperative Election Study. They surveyed 61,000 folks in the Fall of 2020. Then, they recontacted 11,000 of them in the fall of 2022. Guess what that means? I can tell you how much religion changed at the individual level using a really big dataset. That’s awesome. Let’s get to it.
(ANALYSIS) I guess there is a question that motivates this post but it’s about as simple as it’s going to get: How is Joe Biden doing among a bunch of different religious groups? Asking about presidential approval is about as straightforward as it gets, and the question was posed in the Fall of 2021, 2022, and 2023.
(ANALYSIS) If anything can shift abortion opinion in the general public, it has to be Dobbs, right? It is, without a doubt, the biggest change in policy regarding abortion in the last 50 years. In fact, the last example I can think of a time when the government has taken away rights that were already granted was Prohibition. And we all know how that turned out.
(ANALYSIS) It’s hard to get a read on where the SBC is headed, honestly. Some events would lead one to believe that they are headed in a very conservative direction (like the IVF resolution), while others tend to point to a denomination that is conservative, but not fundamentalist. But make no mistake — the data says that the average Southern Baptist is further to the right today than the average Southern Baptist from 30 or 40 years ago.
(ANALYSIS) Educated people are more likely to attend religious services weekly than those with a lower level of education. I wrote a long piece about that a while ago. But someone (I can’t recall now, it was maybe in a Twitter reply) asked if that same relationship held for both men and women.
(ANALYSIS) I believe that we can probably find an example of the culture war in nearly every era of American history. I haven’t dabbled in too much polling data that centers around issues related to a transgender identity — largely because I don’t have access to polls that include questions on the topic. But the 2023 Cooperative Election Study did ask a three-question battery that I thought was worth some exploration.
(ANALYSIS) The Association of Religion Data Archives posted an absolutely fascinating dataset called “Clergymen in Revolutionary America (1763-1783).” It’s exactly what you think it is — a big spreadsheet of clergy in the colonies. That’s awesome. The data comes as a result of the efforts by Lewis Frederick Weis in the 1930s to collect this information.
Sometimes, an important high-level finding warrants some additional reflection. I have several of these rolling around in my head at any given point. The one I wanted to zero in on is from a post that ran over a year ago. Simply put, Catholic Mass attendance is way down. About half of all self-identified Catholics said that they attended Mass nearly every week in 1972. In the most recent data, it’s about half that rate.
(ANALYSIS) The field of religion and politics presents me with a whole bunch of combinations of folks who would clearly fall into this cross pressured category. I wanted to focus on one today that may be the most incongruent — people who identify as atheist or agnostic on the religion question but then say that they are Republicans.
(ANALYSIS) The United States is experiencing one of the most significant shifts in Protestant Christianity in its history. What do I mean by that?
(ANALYSIS) If someone asks me who the most famous preacher in the United States is, the answer is honestly quite simple. It’s Joel Osteen, by a mile. He leads Lakewood Church in Houston, Texas. His congregation meets in what used to be the home of the Houston Rockets basketball team. Its seating capacity is nearly 17,000.
(ANALYSIS) The 2024 election faced a situation that echoes the circumstances of 2004. In the Dobbs decision, the Supreme Court essentially turned the question of abortion regulation back to the states. That means that the ballot initiative/referendum has become the instrument through which states can set limits (or not) on abortion access.