Meetings On Kashmir Raise Questions About An Uncertain Future
(ANALYSIS) SRINAGAR— Nearly two years after Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) was split into two Union Territories (UT) and Article 370 of the Constitution was revoked, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met 14 J&K leaders in New Delhi on June 24 to end the political impasse in the former state.
The meeting was an outreach by the Modi government to the Kashmiri leadership detained for months under Public Safety Act (PSA) after the Article 370 move that stripped J&K of its autonomy and statehood.
The PSA is a law under which anybody can be detained for up to two years without a trial. A lockdown and a communication blockade were imposed on J&K to deal with a backlash against its decision. Back-to-back lockdowns impacted life and livelihoods in Kashmir. The worst-hit were tourism, handicrafts and horticulture sectors that provide a livelihood to the majority of people in Kashmir.
In the meeting, some clarity emerged about a roadmap for a political process in Kashmir. India’s top leadership has told the Kashmiri leaders that the delimitation or the redrawing of constituencies will be followed by elections and a restoration of statehood for J&K at an optimal time, although nothing has been said on the restoration of Kashmir’s autonomy that gave Kashmiris rights over jobs and land and prevented outsiders from settling in the region.
“Congress party has put forth five demands including restoration of statehood,” senior Congress leader and former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad said. "Most parties in the meeting said that Article 370 is a sub judice matter and we must wait for the verdict of the Supreme Court.”
PM Modi told those who attended the meeting that there was a need to reduce both “Dil ki doori, Dilli se doori” (Distance of the heart and distance from Delhi) but he offered no concessions. Home Minister Amit Shah said the statehood to J&K would be restored at an appropriate time but didn’t elaborate on when is that appropriate time.
In Twitter posts after the meeting PM Modi said: “Today’s meeting with political leaders from Jammu and Kashmir is an important step in the ongoing efforts toward a developed and progressive J&K." In another Tweet, he said: “Our priority is to strengthen grassroots democracy in J&K. Delimitation has to happen at a quick pace so that polls can happen and J&K gets an elected government that gives strength to J&K’s development trajectory. Our democracy’s biggest strength is the ability to sit across a table and exchange views. I told the leaders of J&K that it is the people, especially the youth who have to provide political leadership to J&K, and ensure their aspirations are duly fulfilled.”
Kashmir had acceded to India at the time of India’s independence in 1947 rather than merging with a Muslim Pakistan under a constitutional provision called Article 370 that allowed a semi-autonomous rule in Kashmir. The land-locked region is divided between India and Pakistan. India rules the Valley of Kashmir, Jammu region and Ladakh region, and territory in the west is ruled by Pakistan. India and Pakistan both claim the region in full.
It is not clear what prompted the government of India to reach out to Jammu and Kashmir leadership at this juncture. Observers say the geo-political changes could have prompted the government of India to take this move.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked all to support the delimitation process in Jammu and Kashmir. Kashmir- based National Conference, with three members in the Indian parliament, which had earlier boycotted the meetings of the delimitation commission, has softened its stand with the party authorizing the party President and former J&K Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah to decide on taking part in the delimitation meetings.
Why is the BJP insisting on delimitation or redrawing of constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir?
Observers say after delimitation, the balance of power will shift to the Hindu majority Jammu region. Delimitation was made possible after the parliament passed the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act. The National conference challenged the validity of the J&K Reorganisation Act 2019 in the Supreme Court. After delimitation, the number of assembly segments in Jammu and Kashmir will increase from 107 to 114. Jammu is likely to get the maximum number of seats which will narrow the gap in the number of assembly seats between Jammu (37 at present) and Kashmir (46) and create a possibility of a first-ever Hindu Chief Minister for Jammu and Kashmir, which is a long-pending goal of the BJP. Muslims in Jammu and Kashmir constitute 68.3 percent of the population, Hindus 28 percent.
About 50,000 people have been killed in the conflict, mainly between Indian security forces and Kashmiri militant separatists in the last three decades, according to government figures. In the 1990s’ many Kashmiri Hindus fled for their lives and settled outside Kashmir in places like Jammu and Delhi. But as the Kashmir-based alliance of political parties - People Alliance For Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) formed after the repeal of Article 370, tensions emerged over whether to build ties with India or to follow the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), founded by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, and hold a dialogue with Pakistan.
It was during the PDP-led government in J&K the Line of Control (LoC) bus service between divided parts of Kashmir between India and Pakistan started; that time also marked the beginning of cross LoC trade. The LoC is the military control line between the Indian and Pakistan parts of Jammu and Kashmir, which serves as a de facto border
On April 7, 2005, then Indian prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh had inaugurated the first cross-LoC bus service — titled Karwaan-e-Aman, or peace caravan — that connected divided Kashmir. Later, the Cross-LoC trade, established as a barter trade, began on Oct. 21, 2008, across two Kashmirs.
Traders on either side of the LoC were permitted to exchange 21 mutually agreed items. There were no banking facilities and money transfers for the cross LoC trade, which was sometimes intermittently suspended. On April 9, 2019, India suspended cross-LoC trade on grounds that the trade routes were being misused for smuggling illegal weapons, narcotics and fake currency. Cross-LoC bus service and trade were seen as the two biggest Kashmir specific confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan and an important step toward resolving the Kashmir conflict.
According to a study carried out by the New Delhi-based Bureau of Research on Industry and Economic Fundamentals (BRIEF), as many as 4,229 families, at two trading points, have been severely impacted by the suspension of cross-Line of Control (LoC) trade in Jammu and Kashmir in April 2019.
Notwithstanding the business losses, the meeting of PM Modi with the leaders of Jammu and Kashmir marks the beginning of a formal engagement between Kashmir and New Delhi even as most people in Kashmir are skeptical about any outcome.
“Our businesses have suffered in the last two years due to lockdowns. We want an end to uncertainty, but at the same time, we want the leaders to articulate the aspirations of people of Jammu and Kashmir,” said Feroz Ahmad, who does handicraft business.
“Students have been the worst victims of three back-to-back lockdowns due to the abrogation of Article 370 and corona virus,” Hanan Khan, a college student said. “Thankfully, high-speed internet has been restored now; we don’t want any further breaks in our studies.”
The jury is still out whether the meeting of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah with leaders of J&K was meant for optics or a genuine effort to end political uncertainty in J&K and bring it back on the path of democracy.
Some in JK are asking questions whether the outreach will help build bridges between Kashmir and New Delhi. And will the process lead to a reversal of the constitutional changes made to Jammu and Kashmir? Is delimitation of constituencies in J&K the beginning of an exercise to pave way for a Hindu Chief Minister and to counter BJP's dented reputation across India due to its failures in tackling the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic?
Those are questions with no clear answers right now.
Zaffar Iqbal is a journalist based in Kashmir, India. He has reported for 18 years on armed encounters, environmental issues, crime, politics, culture and human rights. He’s formerly the bureau chief of Jammu and Kashmir for NDTV.