Choosing A New Pope: Cardinals Face Test Of Continuity Vs. Change
The world awaits that puff of white smoke.
In just four days, 133 cardinal electors will make their way inside the Sistine Chapel. Once there, they will cast ballots that will result in who will become the next pope and head of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
This conclave is significant not only for its size, but also for the opportunity it presents to shape the future of the Catholic Church. The outcome will have implications for the church's stance on a variety of issues and determine whether the church wants to continue with the direction set forth by Francis.
Piero Schiavazzi, an Italian journalist who covers the Vatican, said the Catholic Church has “always been universal – meaning it was all over the world.”
“However, for the first time, it has undergone globalization,” he added. “Pope Francis globalized the church. To globalize means to decentralize.”
READ: 6 Things To Know About The Conclave
Francis’ aim was to name more cardinals from what he called “the peripheries.” He was also branded a reformer and a pope progressive on a number of issues who, traditionalists argued, caused widespread doctrinal confusion during his 12-year papacy.
The conclave that will get underway on Wednesday is notable for its size — with 133 cardinal electors from 71 countries, the largest number in history. Pope Francis made 108 of these cardinals. A candidate needs to earn a two-thirds majority, a total of 89 votes, in order to ascend to the Throne of Peter.
Discussions among cardinals have highlighted divisions within the church, framed as a battle between continuity or change.
Some have criticized Francis’ liberal reforms. A conservative bloc of cardinals could persuade a majority to go in a different direction (with the help of prelates from Africa and Asia, continents where the church is growing) against a progressive one made up of Americans and Europeans.
In a recent Wall Steet Journal column, Archbishop Emiritus Charles Chaput argued that the next pope needs to uphold traditional Catholic doctrine, while resisting pressures to conform to secular trends.
“The glue of Catholic identity is what we believe,” he noted. “Creed matters.”
Several candidates have emerged in recent days, most notably, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy. The men represent different doctrinal perspectives on a church that is grappling with a number of issues as the cardinal electors enter the conclave.
Another early frontrunner for the papacy includes Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State – although the conclave is known for its unpredictability and compromise candidates may emerge as discussions unfold.
Although 52 of the voting cardinals hail from Europe (a third of whom are Italians), it could be the prelates from the Global South who determine the outcome.
“It is becoming clear, however, that the European bloc is no longer unified. Divisions over the legacy of Pope Francis’ reforms and the church’s response to various manifestations of secularism reflect deeper cultural and theological fault lines,” said Solène Tadié, a European correspondent for the National Catholic Register. “European cardinals will face a difficult balancing act: Preserving the church’s traditional teachings and identity while adapting to new social realities.”
Photo courtesy of Vatican Media
A larger conclave
On Oct. 1, 1975, Pope Paul VI first established the rule that the “maximum number of cardinal electors shall not exceed 120” in the Apostolic Constitution. Prior to this, in the consistory of 1969, the College of Cardinals had reached 134 electors.
Despite Pope John Paul II confirming the rule limiting the number to 120, recent popes, including Francis, have elevated more cardinals, exceeding the number. When Pope Benedict XVI resigned in 2013, the ensuing conclave that elected Francis consisted of 207 cardinals —but only 117 under the age of 80 eligible to serve as electors.
Despite a history of exceeding the limit, the upcoming conclave will be the first time one will take place with more than 120 cardinal electors. Given the conclave’s geographic diversity makes it even more difficult, experts said, to predict its outcome.
The College of Cardinals released a declaration last week recognizing the right of all 133 electors to participate in the conclave, one that had been dispensed by Pope Francis when the limit was exceeded.
Preparations for the conclave – including the installation of a chimney on the Sistine Chapel’s roof to signal the outcome (black smoke indicates no decision, while white smoke announces a new pope) – began last week after the Francis’s funeral on April 26. Francis died on April 21 at the age of 88.
The Casa Santa Marta, where cardinals will live during the conclave, has been readied. Security measures – including signal jammers – have also been installed to prevent any unauthorized communication between the cardinals and the outside world during the entire duration of the conclave.
The question remains, who will be the next pope? Schiavazzi said Africans and Asians should expect one elected from their continent. However, he added, there could be an Italian cardinal to emerge as a compromise candidate.
“They could elect [an Italian] who would serve as a mediator,” he said, “between all these continents and the different nations of the world.”
Clemente Lisi is the executive editor of Religion Unplugged.