THE RECENT SWEARING-IN of the new Tibetan prime minister in exile was historic.

Apart from taking the highest office in the exiled government, Harvard scholar Lobsang Sangay became the first-ever secular leader of the Tibetan freedom movement, formerly headed by the Dalai Lama. The ensuing commentary in the media carried armchair analysis, which underestimated the significance of this historic development, exiled leaders say.

The decades-long struggle to restore freedom in Tibet, which was annexed by China in 1951, received some international support due to the Dalai Lama’s popularity. But the new leader, analysts say, lacks the stature. And then, the Dalai Lama was Tibet’s Head of State before he and 80,000 Tibetans fled to India following a failed uprising in 1959 and therefore he was seen as a legitimate representative of the movement. Sangay, on the other hand, has never been to Tibet and represents just about 150,000 Tibetan exiles, they point out.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the struggle is being perceived as declining. However, the mood and the resolve among Tibetan activists in the north Indian hill town of Dharamsala, where the exiles are based, suggest a different story. The Dalai Lama’s move to separate politics from religion, they say, was a calculated one and aimed at strengthening their struggle and ensuring its longevity. Hardly anyone in McLeodganj, the “Little Tibet” in Dharamsala, doubts his wisdom and the majority anticipates growth of the freedom movement.

“Now the onus is on us,” said Tenzin Dhardon from the Tibetan Women’s Association. “This realisation has made the youth even more responsible,” said Tenzin Tsundue, a poet and activist who spent months in jails in Tibet and India for street protests. The 43-year-old new leader has energised the exiled youth, he added.

Tibetan activists say in private that the Dalai Lama, now only the spiritual head of his people, has also pre-empted China’s attempt to rob them of leadership. For Beijing is grooming its own Panchen Lama in Tibet to succeed the Dalai Lama while the one Dalai Lama’s representatives had selected is believed to be in jail.

Not only the movement will grow, it will also maintain the international support, said Tenzin P. Atisha, the exiled government’s international relations secretary. “The Dalai Lama will always be the face of the Tibetan struggle and his retirement from politics will make it easier for nations to welcome him,” Atisha said.

Moreover, Sangay has adopted the Dalai Lama’s middle-way policy, which seeks genuine autonomy within China, as opposed to independence, he said. “So nations should not see a problem in engaging him.”

Even when the Dalai Lama was heading the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), the politically correct name of the exiled government, no country officially recognised it. However, the Dalai Lama was able to officially appoint representatives to 11 countries. Dhardon said her organisation was preparing to launch an online campaign urging foreign governments to officially recognise Sangay’s government – a tall order.

Activists are optimistic but not foolhardy. They realise that no amount of resistance, protest or lobbying can restore freedom in Tibet, said Tenzin Yangzom from the Tibetan Youth Congress. “Pressure doesn’t work with China.”

But Tibet will be free one day, Tsundue hopes. “China is changing with the Internet and with the growing education and business. It’s the Chinese who will bring about a change. After all, there are millions of Chinese Buddhists who look up to Tibetans as their spiritual guide.” Dhardon said she could see a rise in Chinese tourists and students interested in Buddhism coming to Dharamsala.

In the meantime, exiled Tibetans just need to sustain the movement. If the Dalai Lama keeps the Tibetans united with religion, and Sangay “frustrates all Chinese efforts to dismantle the gathering momentum,” it will be a big accomplishment, said Maloy Krishna Dhar, a former Joint Director of India’s Intelligence Bureau. This is what the exiles are aiming at, and seem capable of doing.

Tibetans inside Tibet are also involved in the struggle, though with little or no linkage with the exiles. Religion and culture define Tibet’s identity but the Chinese government has enacted laws to control the monastic body and is uprooting the distinctive Tibetan culture, Yangzom said, adding that around 40 percent of the Tibetans were part of the clergy who could not be expected to be subservient.

Tibetans in Tibet held courageous protests in the run up to the 2008 Olympic Games in China leading to arrests and violent repression by Chinese authorities. Hundreds of protesting monks were detained, and remain in jails even today.

If the movement grows under Sangay, which the activists believe it will, border tensions between the two Asian giants, India and China, may worsen.

India is uniquely placed in relation to Tibet, both geographically and culturally. And, as Dhar put it, the Indian government “passively and subtly” supports the Tibetan struggle, seemingly for leverage over Beijing. And China rakes up border issues with New Delhi to pressure it to control Tibetan exiles. The two countries fought a war over borders in 1962 – three years after India gave asylum to the Dalai Lama and his people.

If and when India’s and China’s quid-pro-quo diplomatic maneuvers increase in the coming months and years, the new leader will gradually come to prominence. Beijing and New Delhi may soon realise that engaging Sangay, officially or otherwise, is better than ignoring him - or so Tibetan activists hope.