(ANALYSIS) Eight years ago, Lifeway Research asked Protestant pastors who they planned to support in the presidential election, and only 3% declined to answer.

That number didn’t change much in 2020, when 4% declined. But things changed recently, when almost a quarter of the pastors refused to voice their choice in the 2024 White House race.

Among those who tipped their hand, 50% said they would vote for former President Donald Trump, and 24% backed Vice President Kamala Harris. The intriguing question is, why — in a tense, tight election — are so many clergy insisting that they are undecided or need to remain silent for some other reason?

“Whether these pastors are mum because their vote might differ from the majority view in their congregations or because they are genuinely undecided was not clear,” noted Mark Wingfield of Baptist News Global. “Nationally, as few as 3% of all voters are considered truly undecided this election year, a much lower share than in previous years.”

In the document explaining the survey, Lifeway executive director Scott McConnell noted that how pastors define “their own political party preference” is consistently the best way to predict their voting-booth decisions.

Half of the Protestants surveyed identify as Republicans, while 18% are Democrats and 25% said they are political independents. Clergy leading conservative flocks — evangelical, Baptist, nondenominational or Pentecostal — are most likely to be Republicans. Presbyterians, Methodists, Lutherans and clergy in other progressive mainline churches are most likely to be Democrats. Also, Black pastors are among those most likely to back Harris (71%) and the least likely to support Trump (5%).

Thus, a recent Pew Research Center survey found that 82% of White evangelicals — clergy and laity — plan to vote for Trump, while 86% of Black Protestants plan to support Harris. White mainline Protestants were more evenly divided, with 58% ready to back Trump.

“Denominational groups often lean one way politically, but pastors must minister alongside many clergy who don't share their political views. The same is true within their own congregations,” noted McConnell. “In a culture that increasingly doesn’t want to tolerate people with different political views,” he added, many pastors are striving for “unity centered on their faith. ... The growing number of pastors unwilling to respond with their voting intentions shows how sensitive or divisive politics has become in some churches.”

The new Lifeway survey also found that:

— A majority of the surveyed Protestant pastors stressed the importance of maintaining national security (85%), protecting religious freedom (84%), improving the economy (83%), addressing immigration issues (81%) and handling abortion questions (80%). Supreme Court picks and racial injustice were important, as well.

— Trump supporters were among the most likely to stress religious freedom (96%), an issue that once was a shared concern of Democrats and Republicans — with the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 1993 passing in the U.S. Senate on a 97-3 vote. Clergy poised to vote for Trump were the most likely to say their top priority was a candidate’s stance on abortion.

— Pastors prepared to vote for Harris were among those most likely to say they wanted a candidate "with personal character" (96%) and who was committed to addressing racial injustice (92%) and climate change (91%).

While it's important to note that many clergy hesitate to say where they stand on the merits of specific candidates, Marvin Olasky notes that it's also important to ask why many laypeople believe their pastors should go public with these choices. Olasky is a conservative writer whose bestseller, “The Tragedy of American Compassion” was influential during the era of President George W. Bush. He has been a consistent critic of Trump.

It’s important for pastors to defend their church’s doctrines on moral issues such as abortion, racism, marriage and gender, he said, reached by telephone. The problem is when pastors begin to fear whether matters of partisan politics will force people out of their pews or cause them to cut financial support to their congregations.

“It’s wrong to act out of fear,” said Olasky. “Pastors are pastors because we believe they have more understanding of theological questions than we do. But there is no reason to believe that pastors have been given greater insights or authority on how to handle matters of politics.”

COPYRIGHT 2024 ANDREWS MCMEEL SYNDICATION

Terry Mattingly is Senior Fellow on Communications and Culture at Saint Constantine College in Houston. He lives in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and writes Rational Sheep, a Substack newsletter on faith and mass media.