(ANALYSIS) An “intelligence” report has emerged suggesting that over 900 “Kuki militants,” trained in advanced warfare techniques, have crossed from Myanmar into India and may target Meitei villages in Manipur around Sept. 28.

It’s quite strange that this information was shared with the public at a press conference by a senior official, rather than being communicated discretely to the Indian amy, or at least the Assam Rifles stationed at the India-Myanmar border — who are better equipped than ordinary citizens to respond.

This “disclosure” is not only strange but also reckless, reflecting the politics surrounding ethnic violence in the northeastern state.

Let’s first examine how this information was disclosed to the public.

The intel

The office of Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh forwarded the intelligence inputs to the director general of Police and the state’s security adviser, Kuldiep Singh. A copy of the letter “leaked” to the media. When Kuki-Zo organizations reacted to the media reports by labeling them state propaganda, Mr. Singh, the security adviser, conducted a press conference on Sept. 20 to “confirm” the report.

It is difficult to understand why the security adviser is interested in convincing the public of this purported intelligence report. What is the intended outcome of such efforts? It is difficult also to understand what the origin of this intelligence report could be. It was accessible to the state’s chief minister but not to the central security forces or even the Assam Rifles.

Newsreel Asia has confirmed from reliable sources in Manipur that no legitimate intelligence agency in the country has collected or corroborated this input.

The security adviser’s press conference evidently failed to convince the Indian army.

After the conference, the Indian army posted on its X handle, Spear Corps: “These inputs have very serious security implications, and the office of the Security Advisor has been requested to share the details so that appropriate necessary action can be taken at the earliest.” The tweet was later deleted for obvious reasons.

Most citizens would agree that intelligence information related to national security should be handled with discretion, especially when such content typically falls under the jurisdiction of the central government and its armed forces. Due to the information’s sensitive nature, public dissemination of this information could potentially compromise security protocols or strategic responses.

It appears that this intelligence information was intended for public consumption rather than for actionable use by the army or central forces.

‘100 percent correct’

It’s not surprising, therefore, that, at the press conference, Mr. Singh placed the burden of proof on critics to disprove the alleged intel information rather than proving its correctness. Mr. Singh said, “The intelligence report cannot be taken lightly. Unless and until it is proved wrong, we believe that it is 100% correct,” as reported by NDTV.

The proposition “Unless and until it is proved wrong, we believe that it is 100% correct” can be problematic because it allows any claim to be accepted and disseminated until proven otherwise. Should the burden of verification be on the recipients of the information? And should the exercise of verification be done after potential harm has been done?

The infiltration

Now, consider the logistics of such a massive infiltration. Imagine nearly 900 individuals, almost equivalent to a battalion, armed and infiltrating the country. If we assume that one four-wheel vehicle can carry five people, this scenario would involve around 180 vehicles moving through the hills of Manipur. Yet, security agencies have not intercepted any of these movements? And the chief minister’s office in Imphal is the entity that became aware of this? It seems highly improbable.

Let’s also consider who these infiltrators might be. If they have entered from Myanmar, we are likely discussing the Chin state, which borders both Manipur and Mizoram. Across the border in Chin state, there are several rebel groups. These groups are currently engaged in fierce battles with Myanmar’s military government, known locally as the Tatmadaw, and also among themselves.

Driven by its own security concerns, the Indian government is reportedly taking steps to facilitate peace in Myanmar’s Chin state. It has allegedly engaged with various factions by inviting political and military opponents of Myanmar’s ruling junta to attend a seminar in New Delhi. So, India and its security establishment are not ignorant of these groups in Myanmar.

Let’s also consider the timing of this purported intelligence input.

The timing

The ethnic unrest between the majority Meitei community and the Kuki-Zo tribal people in Manipur over land rights and identity began on May 3, 2023. In the initial days, massive violence resulted in over 100 deaths, while a few women were gang-raped and thousands of homes were destroyed. This led to a complete segregation of Meitei and Kuki-Zo areas, with the former confined to the Imphal valley and the latter to the hills.

Tensions have remained high since then, marked largely by constant attempts to attack Kuki-Zo villages and sporadic killings of tribal people and also those of Meiteis attempting these attacks.

Innocent Meitei civilians have also been killed and their homes destroyed, yet no Meitei group has disclosed the number of fatalities and casualties. Kuki-Zo groups say at least 199 Kuki-Zo individuals have been killed over the last 16 months.

In June 2024, violence erupted in Jiribam after the Manipur chief minister was blamed for the poor showing of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the recent general elections. There was a relative lull for nearly three months.

‘Manipur tapes’

Around mid-August 2024, The Wire reported an audio recording, known as the “Manipur Tapes,” allegedly featuring the voice of Chief Minister Singh discussing violent tactics amid the ongoing ethnic conflict, which had been submitted to the Commission of Inquiry set up by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs to investigate the violence.

Since then, the Kuki-Zo groups have been focusing on advocating for a speedier investigation into the chief minister’s purported admissions in the tapes.

Suddenly, on Sept. 1, 2024, violence erupted again, resulting in the deaths of at least 11 individuals, both Kuki-Zo and Meitei. The Manipur police, headed by the chief minister who also holds the Home portfolio, claimed that Kuki-Zo groups used military-grade drones and rockets to launch attacks on Meitei areas. The Kuki-Zo groups denied the charge, stating they have only used ordinary drones for surveillance and some homemade “rockets.” The only alleged evidence of the use of sophisticated aerial weapons is with the state police.

On Sept. 4, 2024, Advocate Prashant Bhushan formally requested the inquiry commission to register a first information report (FIR) against the chief minister, based on the contents of the Manipur Tapes, asserting that his removal from office is necessary.

About 10 days later, a leaked copy of the purported intelligence report emerged from the chief minister’s office, with media reports on this leak diverting public attention away from the Manipur Tapes.

The alleged drone and rocket attacks and the purported entry of 900 Kuki militants from Myanmar do not seem in the interests of Manipur’s Kuki-Zo groups by any stretch of the imagination. We do not know which armed group in Myanmar these alleged infiltrators belong to or which Kuki-Zo group in Manipur they are aligned with.

Insurgents

Among the Kuki-Zo in Manipur, there are armed groups who have been demanding a separate state within the Union of India. However, these groups have signed “suspension of operation” pacts with the central government.

Conversely, valley-based insurgency groups (VBIGs), primarily Meiteis, challenge Manipur’s incorporation into India in 1949 and seek to establish a sovereign state. For security forces, this insurgency has understandably been a major security concern. Several media reports, including one from The Hindu, have indicated that separatist insurgency has resurfaced in Manipur following the onset of violence in May of the previous year.

Their increasing influence in Manipur is perceivable. On Sept. 21, 2024, the armed National Revolutionary Front Manipur (NRFM), a separatist insurgent group, called for an 18-hour bandh (a protest similar to a strike) to oppose the Manipur merger agreement of Sept. 21, 1949.

Hindustan Times reported: “All shops and private establishments remained closed in the Imphal valley, and the streets wore a deserted look as vehicles stayed off the roads in view of the bandh.”

Reputation of Central Armed Forces

Furthermore, the content of the intelligence report appears to support ongoing propaganda against the Indian army and the Assam Rifles deployed in Manipur. This alleged massive infiltration could damage the reputation of these security forces, as it seems to imply that they failed to intercept and prevent the entry of the foreign militants.

Given this context, the state government and the state’s security adviser seem to be playing with fire by publicly sharing sensitive, unverifiable and dubious information — a kind of information that is read also by the international community.

It was predictable that such disclosures — even if true, though they don’t appear to be — would not aid any efforts, if present, to reestablish peace between the two ethnic groups. Such actions jeopardize both national and regional security. 

This piece has been co-published in cooperation with Newsreel Asia.

Vishal Arora is an independent journalist based in New Delhi, India, who covers Asia and beyond. He serves as editor of @Newsreel_Asia and is a board member of The Media Project. He’s written for many outlets including The Wall Street Journal, The Diplomat and The Caravan.