(ANALYSIS) The United States is experiencing one of the most significant shifts in Protestant Christianity in its history. What do I mean by that?

For the latter half of the 20th century, there were two denominations that stood out in terms of their size and influence on American discourse. The evangelical tradition was typified by the Southern Baptist Convention, while the United Methodist Church symbolized mainline Protestant Christianity.

But how the mighty have fallen.

The Southern Baptist Convention had a membership of 16.2 million in 2006. Today, that number stands at 13.2 million. Of those 3 million that have been lost in the last 16 years, 1.3 million members were shed in 2020, 2021, and 2022 combined. It’s bad news.

However, there’s been an even faster percentage decline in another denomination previously mentioned: the United Methodist Church. There were 6.3 million United Methodists in 2020. The best estimate of their current number is 4.9 million. That’s a decline of 1.4 million during the same time period, representing a percentage decrease of 21 percent since 2020.

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Ryan Burge is an assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, a pastor in the American Baptist Church and the co-founder and frequent contributor to Religion in Public, a forum for scholars of religion and politics to make their work accessible to a more general audience. His research focuses on the intersection of religiosity and political behavior, especially in the U.S. Follow him on X at @ryanburge.