(ANALYSIS) Although 46 states have yet to vote, pundits left and right are agreeing with Donald Trump that his decisive victory over Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina ends the Republican nomination contest.

Nonetheless, Haley vows to soldier on through Michigan this week and Super Tuesday on March 5 — if not beyond. And just in case, she’ll control some delegates at the July Republican convention.

But assuming it’s game on for an inevitable rerun of Trump vs. Biden, with a predicted narrow victory margin, what religious dynamics will be playing out?

Both individuals present anomalies. Joe Biden, the second Catholic president, is a faithful Mass attender who defies church teaching on matters like abortion. Donald Trump is essentially unchurched, but told evangelical broadcasters last week he’s a “very proud Christian” and a “fellow believer.” Trump turned their convention into a campaign rally, pledging that if elected he’ll “protect God in the public square” and investigate “harassment and persecution against Christians in America.”

That’s only the start of the most perplexing presidential contest since … when? Republican operative Karl Rove sees “contingencies piled on uncertainties topped by imponderables,” due to campaign “ugliness,” apathy eroding turnout, Trump’s court distractions or criminal convictions, Biden’s “senior moments” and the chances both men will duck debates.

Meanwhile, China and Russia will slyly spread distrust of U.S. democracy via the internet. Third parties and independents could scramble everything; No Labels decides in March whether to launch its “Unity ticket.”

The overarching 2024 reality was nicely summarized on CNN by top-rank Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. This is a “nose-holding” election in which masses of “double haters” disdain both major party nominees as unfit.

An ABC/Ipsos poll Feb. 11 asked whether the front-runners “are ‘too old’ for another term as president.” With Biden, 86% said yes (he’d end a second term at age 86). With Trump (who’d be 82), 62% said yes. (This makes vice presidential nominees unusually pivotal.) In “favorability” polling over the past 24 months, neither man has ever managed to reach 50%; the current fivethirtyeight.com averages remain underwater with Biden at 40.1% and Trump at 43.4%.

With religion, this unpredictable year offers some certainties. Black Protestants, Jews and followers of other non-Christian faiths will provide the usual Democratic majorities, though here even slight slippage or low turnout could tilt close states to Trump.

Democrats rely ever more heavily upon the growing numbers without religious affiliation or identity (the so-called “nones”), including an anti-religious faction. Protestants in the predominantly White and moderate-to-liberal mainline denominations are closely divided with only modest impact.

That leaves the nation’s two major religious populations in evangelical Protestants and Catholics. Hispanic Catholics vote Democratic, though there are hints of Republican gains. White non-Hispanic Catholics, once heavily Democratic, have moved in recent decades to provide Republican majorities by shifting margins that can decide elections. Evangelicals are lopsidedly for Trump, but favored prior Republican nominees by similar margins.

An important Substack column by political scientist Ryan Burge focuses on General Social Survey trends. In the early 1970s “around 40% of American adults were white Christian Democrats,” combining Protestants and Catholics. The most recent survey showed a mere 13% of White Christians who were Democrats. Burge predicts future virtual “extinction” of this once-powerful political sector.

For 2024, focus on eight battleground states with 86 Electoral College votes (out of 270 needed to win) that Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball team at the University of Virginia, among others, figure will decide this thing. Importantly, Sabato offers “best guess projections” of what’s likely in November, as opposed to “where things may stand now.”

Here’s detail on the eight, with the 2020 two-man result that accounts for third party percentages, Sabato team’s 2024 rating and Religious Landscape Study populations from the Pew Research Center:

— Arizona: Biden managed a tiny 0.3% margin over Trump in 2020. Rated a 2024 toss-up state by Sabato. The 26% evangelical population is slightly outnumbered by the 27% of “nones,” with Catholics at 21%.

— Georgia: Biden won by a minuscule 0.2%. Also a Sabato toss-up. This key swing state is one of the nation’s most evangelical, at 38% of the population.

— Michigan: Biden won by 2.8%. Sabato says it leans Democratic. Evangelicals at 25% just edge the “nones” at 24%. Theoretically, the 242,000 Muslims could decide a tight race.

— Nevada: Biden won by 2.4%. Another Sabato toss-up. The “nones” are 28%. Catholics are 25%, and especially watch how Hispanic parishioners vote.

— New Hampshire: Biden won by 7.4%. Sabato says it again leans Democratic. The “nones” are a hefty 36% and Catholics 26% in one of the nation’s least evangelical states (only 13%).

— North Carolina: Trump won by 1.4%. Sabato says it leans Republican. Akin to Georgia, it’s 35% evangelical.

— Pennsylvania: Biden won by 1.2%. Sabato says it leans Democratic. Catholics are 24%, and here mainline Protestants at 23% outnumber evangelicals at 19%.

— Wisconsin: Biden won by just 0.7%. Yet another Sabato toss-up. Both Catholics and “nones” claim 25% with evangelicals at 22%.

If there’s an extremely close Electoral College count, note that two states pick electors by House districts and, per Sabato, Maine No. 2 leans Republican and Nebraska No. 2 leans Democratic.

By the way, control of the next Congress looks similarly close.

With the Senate, Sabato’s projections give Republicans 50 seats, thus a majority if they’d have a vice president voting, and there's a decent shot at flipping toss-up Democratic seats in Arizona (see above), Montana (30% “nones,” 28% evangelical) and Ohio (29% evangelical, 22% “nones”).

Regarding the House, Sabato’s team thinks 212 seats currently look “safe, likely, or leaning” Republican, 204 Democratic, and 19 up for grabs.

Richard N. Ostling was a longtime religion writer with The Associated Press and with Time magazine, where he produced 23 cover stories, as well as a Time senior correspondent providing field reportage for dozens of major articles. He has interviewed such personalities as Billy Graham, the Dalai Lama, the late Mother Teresa, and Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger (now Pope Benedict XVI); ranking rabbis and Muslim leaders; and authorities on other faiths; as well as numerous ordinary believers. He writes a bi-weekly column for Religion Unplugged.