SRINAGAR, India — The Supreme Court of India has upheld the government's decision to revoke the special status of Kashmir under Article 370, a move made more than four years ago.

This latest decision, however, has rekindled debates surrounding autonomy, demographics and the trajectory of regarding Kashmir’s future.

The fear among critics is that these changes could pave the way for non-Kashmiris to settle in the region and alter its Muslim-majority character.

READ: Modi Critics Raise Alarms Regarding India’s Persecution Of Religious Minorities

In August 2019, the Indian parliament abolished the limited autonomy that Muslim-majority Kashmir had held for decades. India announced the reorganization of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, reducing its status to that of a union territory.

This shift granted New Delhi increased control over local affairs, including authority over the regional police. Simultaneously, the sparsely populated Ladakh region was designated a distinct union territory.

Chief Justice of India Justice D Y Chandrachud, while delivering the verdict last month, said, “We have held that Article 370 is a temporary provision” and emphasized the restoration of statehood at the earliest.

Prime Minister Modi hailed the Supreme Court's judgment, describing it as not merely a legal decision — but a beacon of hope, promising a brighter future and reflecting collective resolve to build a stronger, more united India.

In a statement, he called it “a resounding declaration of hope, progress and unity for our sisters and brothers in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. The [Supreme] Court, in its profound wisdom, has fortified the very essence of unity that we, as Indians, hold dear and cherish above all else.”

Kashmir — with an overwhelming Muslim population — had acceded to Hindu majority India at the time of the sub-continent’s partition in 1947, rather than merging with the Islamic- ominated Pakistan under constitutional provision Article 370 that allowed a semi-autonomous rule in Kashmir. 

Nearly seven million people live in the Kashmir Valley — 97% of them are Muslims. About 47,000 people have been killed in conflict, mainly between Indian security forces and Kashmiri militant separatists over the last three decades, according to government figures. In the early 1990s, many Kashmiri Hindus fled and settled outside Kashmir in places like Jammu and Delhi.

Article 370 had granted Kashmir limited rights to formulate its own laws and prohibited outsiders from buying land, holding government jobs and receiving educational scholarships. But critics have argued that lifting these restrictions could potentially lead to demographic changes and the influx of non Kashmiri settlers.

The abrogation of Article 370 was part of Modi’s election promises and was met with jubilation by his supporters. Kashmir-based regional political parties, particularly those with a significant vote bank in the Kashmir Valley, viewed the abrogation, and its subsequent endorsement by the Supreme Court, as a betrayal to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

“They don’t want the people of Jammu and Kashmir to get their statehood back, no directions were given to the government for a statehood unlike the conduct of elections, I don’t see people of Jammu and Kashmir getting statehood back soon,” said Iltija Mufti, a member of the People’s Democratic Party and the daughter of former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti. “You have slaughtered our wishes; you have gone against our aspirations, what was given to us by the Indian constitution.”

Preserving Kashmir’s religious identity

Article 370 had helped to preserve Kashmir’s identity and Muslim-majority character by barring outsiders from buying land and applying for government jobs in Kashmir. A new law, however, has the potential to open the region for outsiders to settle.

The law does not define domicile as residency based on identity. It entails the domicile status for anybody who has stayed in Jammu and Kashmir for 15 years or has studied in Jammu and Kashmir for seven years and appeared in the high school examination here.

The Supreme Court confirmation has fundamentally altered the political, social and cultural landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, according to political analyst Zafar Choudhary.

The space for separatist politics has significantly diminished, leading to a changed political dynamic in the region.

“Abrogation of Article 370 has fundamentally changed the terms of political engagements in Jammu and Kashmir,” Choudhary said. “The reading down of the constitutional provisions is to be seen not as an event but as a wider process to recast the entire political, social and cultural landscape of Jammu and Kashmir afresh and in a way envisioned by BJP’s ideological approach. The politics of Kashmir has always operated in a three-layered environment defined by separatism, autonomy and ultra nationalism.”

He added that “separatist politics [has] always enjoyed a degree of acceptance and respect. Various regimes in Delhi, the Indian civil society, academia and media engaged with separatists and offered them space to articulate their views. A series of actions over the last four to five years have criminalized the separatist politics. There is hardly any space left for it.” 

The aftermath of Article 370's abrogation after August 5, 2019 saw heightened security measures, communication lockdowns and detentions of political leaders. The lockdowns took a toll on Kashmir's tourism sector and contributed to economic challenges exacerbated by subsequent lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The BJP anticipates support from West Pakistani refugees who have gained citizenship rights following the revocation of Article 370. However, concerns linger about the potential demographic shifts and their impact on the unique identity of the region.

Impact on Jammu

There are close to 150,000 West Pakistani refugees living in Jammu — all of them Hindus or Sikhs. Since the partition of India in 1947, they had come to settle here. Before the revocation of Article 370, being an Indian citizen gave people the right to contest and vote in the country’s national parliamentary elections.

Since they were not born in Jammu and Kashmir, they could not contest or vote in state elections and were denied state government jobs and even a ration card. The BJP, meanwhile, has made an electoral promise of giving rights to the refugees, including the right to vote, to own property, getting access to higher education and state government jobs.

The ongoing political dynamics in Kashmir remains complex, with regional parties seeking to redefine their narrative in response to the altered legal landscape. The Supreme Court's confirmation poses a challenge for these parties to reinvent their politics and establish a new compact with the people.

“The autonomy related politics, seeking to redraw center-state relations, was always a middle ground which has now gone with abrogation of Article 370 and Supreme Court’s confirmation of it,” Choudhary said. “The time between abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and its confirmation by the Supreme Court in December 2023 was a buffer for the regional parties to recalibrate their politics. That hasn’t happened.”

Zaffar Iqbal is a journalist based in Kashmir, India. He has reported for 18 years on armed encounters, environmental issues, crime, politics, culture and human rights. He’s formerly the bureau chief of Jammu-Kashmir for NDTV.