Religion Unplugged believes in a diversity of well-reasoned and well-researched opinions. This piece reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily represent those of Religion Unplugged, its staff and contributors.

(OPINION) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has the potential to be “the most transformational” European conflict since World War II, writes New York Times foreign policy columnist Thomas Friedman.

Will it be transformational for Christianity?

There’s a slim chance peace could be restored, but at this writing, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin appears committed to doing whatever it takes to demolish the independence of his once-friendly neighbor and its young democracy. We might see Russian military occupation, a puppet regime, persistent armed resistance by furious Ukrainians, ongoing aid by the West and, at some future point, a humiliating defeat and withdrawal — a replay of the decade-long occupation of Afghanistan that played into the Soviet Union’s collapse and therefore to Ukraine’s independence.

Russia faces accusations of war crimes amid mass killings of innocent civilians and bombardment of homes, hospitals, schools and infrastructure, with attendant suffering.

The contours of world Christianity could be scrambled as a result of all of this. This religious aspect seems a mere sidebar for the news media just now.

But long term, the Russian Orthodox hierarchy has fused the church’s stature with a regime hit by widespread moral condemnation, sagging influence and rising economic and diplomatic isolation. Opprobrium comes not just from the U.S. and Western allies. In a United Nations vote, 141 nations denounced the “aggression,” while only four problematic regimes backed Russia. Even China abstained.

The media should be alert to the following possible scenarios:

The starting point for discussion is a current church split within Ukraine, whose Orthodox population is second only to the massive church of Russia. See detail here in a previous Memo.

In 1686, the ecumenical patriarch — “first among equals,” who leads Orthodoxy’s independent “autocephalous” branches — granted the Moscow Patriarchate the jurisdiction over Ukraine that it still exercises. But after national independence, a rival Orthodox Church of Ukraine now led by Metropolitan Epiphanius arose, and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew — with the sympathy of Western leaders — formalized its autocephalous status in 2019.

Orthodoxy around the world remains severely split between those supporting Bartholomew’s right to take this action versus churches loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate, which furiously broke communion with Bartholomew over his edict. Notably, the leader of Ukraine’s Moscow-aligned Orthodox church led by Metropolitan Onuphrius has denounced Russia’s invasion, expressing widespread anger among clergy and laity.

There’s already talk that the war would mean these two rival Orthodox churches based in Kyiv might unite someday, an unimaginable prospect before the invasion. Meanwhile, there are loud anti-Moscow rumblings in Russian Orthodox flocks outside of Russia. Yet the Ecumenical Patriarchate is in a weak position because it consists of a tiny remnant in Istanbul under pressure from an increasingly Islamist Turkish regime.

Could Orthodoxy ever establish full concord and mutual respect among its branches? Could this occur while Bartholomew and Moscow’s Patriarch Kirill are still alive? Is the first recognized council of bishops since A.D. 787 the only way to achieve this? Can such a council ever occur? Could a council resolve the dispute over Moscow’s autocephaly handed to the Orthodox Church in America, which Bartholomew rejects?

The Orthodox have faced many a crisis during two millennia, and the global patriarchs rarely move quickly. That’s bad for headlines and digital news, but that’s the truth.

Meanwhile, a significant minority of Ukrainians are Eastern Rite Catholics, and ever-perceptive Catholic journalist John L. Allen Jr. of Crux thinks “Ukraine could reshape how we think about Christian unity.” Also note this “ecumenical reset” essay by George Weigel at First Things.

Since Catholicism’s ecumenical opening at the Second Vatican Council, popes have triangulated in search of warmer relations with both the Ecumenical and Moscow patriarchates. In 2016, Patriarch Kirill met Pope Francis in Cuba, the first meeting between holders of their two offices since the Catholic-Orthodox split in 1054.

Recently, there were growing hopes for a papal visit to Moscow. Now Catholic commentators doubt Francis or his successors will achieve much with Moscow — or even wish to.

The war could damage Kirill as a prime personality on the world Christian scene. Here’s one of the anti-Kirill articles appearing in western religious media, care of Religion News Service. ABC News says the current war and Kirill’s support for Putin underscore the Moscow church’s subservience to national rulers.

The embarrassing past history, which involved Western mainline Protestants and much of world Orthodoxy, has the makings of a 2022 feature. Kirill was a protégé and successor of the wily Metropolitan Nikodim as envoy to the World Council of Churches and thus is either a reluctant tool or collaborator with atheistic overlords.

Meanwhile, there’s an unusual U.S. Protestant twist that involves “dispensationalists,” who search Bible prophecies for signs that the end times are coming. An extreme example is the interpretation of Ezekiel 38-39 by retired TV host Pat Robertson. He and some others believe Putin was “compelled by God” to invade Ukraine as the “staging area” for Armageddon and Jesus Christ’s Second Coming.

Sources:

The Orthodox news site orthochristian.com sides with Moscow’s “canonical” church in Ukraine over against what it calls the “schismatic” independent church recognized by the Ecumenical Patriarchate — but provides waves of URLs to crucial documents and statements linked to the conflict. The Moscow Patriarchate’s official English site is here. Also see Pravmir.com.

This Greek Orthodox site aligns with Ukraine’s independent Ukrainian church over against Moscow:

Crux covers global church news with a Catholic emphasis. See also the Catholic news and commentary at The Pillar.

Ukrainian-American news site — Svoboda.

The independent Moscow Times is here.

Meanwhile, readers will appreciate these Ministry Watch tips for Ukraine donations, but note the recommended agencies omit Catholic options, as well as the American-based International Orthodox Christian Charities, which offers this news page on relief efforts.

Richard Ostling is a former religion reporter for The Associated Press and former correspondent for TIME Magazine. This piece first appeared at Get Religion.