(ANALYSIS) The first six months of this year has produced a pandemic that has killed thousands of Americans followed by high rates of unemployment triggered by the coronavirus lockdowns. Add to that the fight for racial justice following the murder of George Floyd and the protests and civil unrest that followed and you can see how 2020 will be forever remembered as one of the toughest years in American history.

Did we mention it’s also an election year?

While all these issues have changed attitudes and perceptions for millions of Americans, the race to see whether Donald Trump will be re-elected president or if his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, can sweep into power remains a hotly-contested debate with four months to go before citizens go to the polls.

But for all the fallout caused by the virus (and how various states have handled it) and the divisions in this country around issues like race, it should be noted that the election could — once again — be decided by just a handful of majority Catholic suburban (some even rural) counties across four states. The defining issue for these voters, however, isn’t whether you should wear a mask or whether this country is racist. The issue that galvanizes these voters is the preservation of American ideals — most notably the fight against abortion and religious liberty.

In getting Bill Clinton elected in 1992, campaign strategist James Carville famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

This year, it’s the culture wars and the Supreme Court, stupid. Indeed, the Supreme Court was the other really big story this year. That Chief Justice Roberts sided with the court’s liberal wing may actually energize traditional Catholics to once again pull the lever for Trump. Although Biden calls himself a practicing Roman Catholic (John F. Kennedy is the only Catholic president in U.S. history) , he is to the left of these voters on a range of issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights.

National polls show Biden with a lead after securing his party'‘s nomination by winning big on Super Tuesday. He was propelled to victory by capturing the African American vote, many of them church-going Christians. This all sets up a replay of 2016 when Catholic voters — along with a majority of evangelicals — held their noses and voted Trump over Hillary Clinton. Post-2016 election surveys reveal Trump carried the national Catholic vote 52% to Hillary Clinton’s 48%.

The trend this year is the same as four years ago: Catholics in economically depressed Rust Belt states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio will determine whether Trump stays in the White House or if Biden, his Democratic challenger, is elected. Trump won all those states the last time. He will need to do it again if he hopes to be re-elected. Polls in Ohio, for example, show that Trump and Biden are close. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden is stuck at 50%.   

“Democrats across Wisconsin have two reactions to this moment,” Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, told USA Today. “The first is that Trump is an unmitigated disaster, and polls demonstrate that everyone knows he’s bad. The second reaction is that we have learned our lesson from 2016.”

Ohio remains key. Over the last 20 years, the state has made a difference in who is elected president — with counties where predominantly Catholic voters live making the difference. In 2000, George W. Bush captured Ohio by just 166,000 votes. Four years later, Bush beat John Kerry, a non-practicing Catholic, by just 118,000 votes to clinch a second term.

In both 2008 and 2012, Obama lost the national Catholic vote, but fared well in the top 15 mostly-Catholic counties in Ohio, capturing six of them. Obama won despite lower turnout in both those elections, meaning many Catholics decided to stay away from the polls.  

Will they do the same come November? If so, Biden could very well win a plurality in those counties, riding that to the presidency. At the start of the year, Trump’s strategy was to court these voters. His campaign launched “Catholics for Trump” and Trump addressed participants at the annual March for Life, the largest gathering of anti-abortion advocates. Trump also recently visited the Saint John Paul II National Shrine in Washington, D.C. to promote religious freedom and did a TV interview with EWTN.

The Trump campaign — in its zeal to defend “American values” and capitalize on the desecration of monuments across the country — also hopes to highlight traditional values to motivate devout Catholics to pull the lever for him again. Trump did just that on July 3 during a speech at Mount Rushmore to coincide with Independence Day.

While Biden has surged in several national polls in recent weeks, a February poll by EWTN News and RealClear Opinion Research showed Trump leading among Catholics who describe themselves as more active in their faith. That was before the events of the last few months and these Supreme Court decisions that left conservatives let down.

Trump will have to sell these key voters that another four years will allow him the chance to nominate justices that reflect conservative ideals. While Roberts was put on the court by Republican George W. Bush, Justice Neil Gorsuch was put there by Trump. Gorsuch also sided with liberals on the court this past term in the Bostock v. Clayton County case, outlawing employment discrimination against gays and transgendered people.

Brian Burch, who serves as president of the conservative political advocacy group Catholic Vote, said Trump “has delivered in spades for Catholics. I think that part of that is his courage, in spite of opposition from the media and some in his own party.”

Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s former chief of staff and a Catholic, said those who consider themselves devout have no choice but vote for the GOP this fall.  

“As a party, there is something that doesn’t connect any more between faith and the Democrat Party,” he said during a recent talk sponsored by Catholic Vote. “You may like Democrats, but you put the Democrats in charge and the values that you carry as a Roman Catholic are going to suffer — no question about it.”

Has Trump really delivered for these voters? It may not matter in a country where voters have become more ideologically driven and an ever-shrinking percentage of the population considers themselves centrists. For Trump, the mission will be to convince Catholic voters to side with him over an increasingly-progressive Biden. This is still plenty of time before the election. Both parties will hold their conventions this summer and three presidential debates will give everyone a closer look at the candidates.

The other option for these Catholic voters is to stay home come Election Day. That would certainly deliver Biden to the White House.

Clemente Lisi is a senior editor and regular contributor to Religion Unplugged. He is the former deputy head of news at the New York Daily News and teaches journalism at The King’s College in New York City. Follow him on Twitter @ClementeLisi.